Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With core PCE and core CPI both rising more than 4.8%MoM annualised in recent months, and up 4.7%YoY and 5.3%YoY respectively, the pause could only be justified with forward hawkishness.  </li>
<li>ISM manufacturing PMI below 50 for six months, manufacturing new orders below 50 for 9 months, and Services PMI at 50.3 now, suggest that the US is already in recession.</li>
<li>We continue expecting the FedFunds rate to peak at 5.5%, with the Apr-Sep'23 recession and lagged impact of rate hikes enabling core PCE inflation to subside to 3%YoY by end-2023.</li>
</ul>


With core PCE and core CPI both rising more than 4.8%MoM annualised in recent months, and up 4.7%YoY and 5.3%YoY respectively, the pause could only be justified with forward hawkishness.  
ISM manufacturing PMI below 50 for six months, manufacturing new orders below 50 for 9 months, and Services PMI at 50.3 now, suggest that the US is already in recession.
We continue expecting the FedFunds rate to peak at 5.5%, with the Apr-Sep'23 recession and lagged impact of rate hikes enabling core PCE inflation to subside to 3%YoY by end-2023.


FOMC's Hawkish Pause: Recession and a FF Peak of 5.5% to Finally Restrain Core PCE

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- China Bouncing Back

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Debt Ceiling Relief

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A comprehensive empirical study by Goetzmann (2016) covering more than 3000 stock market-years in 21 stock markets between 1900 and 2014 reveals that bubbles are incredibly scarce.</li>
<li>The likelihood of the stock market declining by 50% (crash) within a year after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in the previous year is only just 4%.</li>
<li>Interestingly, stock prices rose by another 100% after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in over 8% of the cases. These findings will not resonate well with perpetual bears.</li>
</ul>


A comprehensive empirical study by Goetzmann (2016) covering more than 3000 stock market-years in 21 stock markets between 1900 and 2014 reveals that bubbles are incredibly scarce.
The likelihood of the stock market declining by 50% (crash) within a year after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in the previous year is only just 4%.
Interestingly, stock prices rose by another 100% after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in over 8% of the cases. These findings will not resonate well with perpetual bears.


Before You Call Artificial Intelligence a Bubble, Understand that Bubbles Are Rare!

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tech Leads the Way

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

FOMC's Hawkish Pause: Recession and a FF Peak of 5.5% to Finally Restrain Core PCE

We've FOMC critics since Dec'21. ISM manuf'g new orders <50 for 9 months affirm the US is in recession. That, with the FF rate at 5.5% by Sep'23,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- China Bouncing Back

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Debt Ceiling Relief

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Before You Call Artificial Intelligence a Bubble, Understand that Bubbles Are Rare!

Exercise caution when calling something a market bubble. Bubbles are less frequent than commonly believed, and booms often persist longer than...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Tech Leads the Way

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris