Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.3%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.9% of the index) was up by 5.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (54.5% of the index) was up 1.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 0.1%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: EVTV, PLUG, JEV, NXT, VIEW, PGTK, LCID, NAAS, ANRG, ELBM</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.3%).Energy Technology (13.9% of the index) was up by 5.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (54.5% of the index) was up 1.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 0.1%.Top 10 Performers: EVTV, PLUG, JEV, NXT, VIEW, PGTK, LCID, NAAS, ANRG, ELBM

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended February 2, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.</li>
<li>1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).</li>
</ul>


More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Retail sales in December rose by 0.6% MoM, beating analyst expectations. Core retail sales also grew stronger than expected. </li>
<li>Automobile, clothing and accessories, and online store sales led growth on a MoM basis, while food services sales growth remained flat.</li>
<li>Given the buoyant growth in sales, traders pared back their expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in March 2024.</li>
</ul>


Retail sales in December rose by 0.6% MoM, beating analyst expectations. Core retail sales also grew stronger than expected. 
Automobile, clothing and accessories, and online store sales led growth on a MoM basis, while food services sales growth remained flat.
Given the buoyant growth in sales, traders pared back their expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in March 2024.


Mint Macro Roundup: Upbeat US Retail Sales in Dec Trims Markets Rate Cut Expectations in March

<ul>
<li>US inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in December and came in above analyst expectations. Core inflation remains equally stubborn.</li>
<li>Similar inflationary pressures as November were observed with shelter costs and service index rising and energy prices continuing to fall. Notably, energy prices slowed their pace of monthly decline.</li>
<li>Market impact of the CPI report was muted as initial price action upon release of the report was reversed through the day. </li>
</ul>


US inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in December and came in above analyst expectations. Core inflation remains equally stubborn.
Similar inflationary pressures as November were observed with shelter costs and service index rising and energy prices continuing to fall. Notably, energy prices slowed their pace of monthly decline.
Market impact of the CPI report was muted as initial price action upon release of the report was reversed through the day. 


Mint Macro Roundup: US Dec CPI up 3.4% Beating Expectations yet Rate Cut Optimism Remains Intact

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended February 2, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.3%).

Water Tower Research

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Mint Macro Roundup: Upbeat US Retail Sales in Dec Trims Markets Rate Cut Expectations in March

US retail sales in December beat expectations, driven by strong growth in automobile, clothing, and online store sales. Market anticipation of Fed...

Mint Finance

Mint Macro Roundup: US Dec CPI up 3.4% Beating Expectations yet Rate Cut Optimism Remains Intact

US headline inflation rises to 3.4% YoY in December, higher than estimates. Core CPI inflation falls below 4%, Market expectations of a rate cut in...

Mint Finance