Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.</li>
<li>April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.</li>
</ul>


US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.
April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.
Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.


Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

<ul>
<li>Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.</li>
<li>Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.</li>
<li>Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.</li>
</ul>


Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.
Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.
Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.


Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 5.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.0% of the index) was down by 6.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (58.1% of the index) was down by 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (23.4% of index) was down 6.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: FSR, PNPN, VTNR, AMMP, TLO, WML, KNDI, GOEV, BMI, CRGE</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 5.4%).Energy Technology (12.0% of the index) was down by 6.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (58.1% of the index) was down by 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (23.4% of index) was down 6.7%.Top 10 Performers: FSR, PNPN, VTNR, AMMP, TLO, WML, KNDI, GOEV, BMI, CRGE

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 19, 2024

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table</li>
<li>New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices</li>
<li>China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected </li>
</ul>


Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table
New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices
China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected 


Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Fed maintains fund rates at 5.25%-5.5%, Despite high inflation Chair Powell stated that rate hikes are unlikely, Continued strength in the labour...

Mint Finance

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 19, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

​US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Fed maintains fund rates at 5.25%-5.5%, Despite high inflation Chair Powell stated that rate hikes are unlikely, Continued strength in the labour...

Mint Finance

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 19, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -​Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.