Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC decided to hold rates steady and their statement suggested that members were not expecting further rate hikes. </li>
<li>FOMC's economic projections suggest 3 rate cuts next year as well as a soft landing for the US economy, reaffirming market view.</li>
<li>Equities surge while dollar falls and bond-yields fall to multi-month low. Gold and Silver rally sharply. EUR and GBP rally but underperform relative to JPY and AUD. </li>
</ul>


FOMC decided to hold rates steady and their statement suggested that members were not expecting further rate hikes. 
FOMC's economic projections suggest 3 rate cuts next year as well as a soft landing for the US economy, reaffirming market view.
Equities surge while dollar falls and bond-yields fall to multi-month low. Gold and Silver rally sharply. EUR and GBP rally but underperform relative to JPY and AUD. 


Mint Macro Roundup: Powell Has Gifted Fed Pivot. Markets in Merry. What to Expect from ECB and BoE?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

<ul>
<li>In November, CPI rose 0.1% Month-on-Month. CPI cooled to annual rate of 3.1%, in-line with expectations. Core inflation unchanged at 4%, double the Fed target.</li>
<li>2.3% MoM decline in energy prices kept inflation low while core inflation rose 0.3% MoM. Rent remains concern, shelter costs rose 0.4% MoM. Early indicators point to declining rent. </li>
<li>Equities markets stronger following release. Other markets looking for further signals from FOMC meeting.</li>
</ul>


In November, CPI rose 0.1% Month-on-Month. CPI cooled to annual rate of 3.1%, in-line with expectations. Core inflation unchanged at 4%, double the Fed target.
2.3% MoM decline in energy prices kept inflation low while core inflation rose 0.3% MoM. Rent remains concern, shelter costs rose 0.4% MoM. Early indicators point to declining rent. 
Equities markets stronger following release. Other markets looking for further signals from FOMC meeting.


Mint Macro Roundup: US November CPI, Lower Oil But Higher Rent

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Soft Landing

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Mint Macro Roundup: Powell Has Gifted Fed Pivot. Markets in Merry. What to Expect from ECB and BoE?

FOMC holds rates steady, signaling no further hikes. Economic projections hint at rate cuts and a soft landing for US economy. Equities rise,...

Mint Finance

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Mint Macro Roundup: US November CPI, Lower Oil But Higher Rent

November CPI rose 0.1% MoM, cooling to an annual rate of 3.1%. Core inflation remains at 4%, double the Fed target. Energy prices declined, but...

Mint Finance

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Soft Landing

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Mint Macro Roundup: Powell Has Gifted Fed Pivot. Markets in Merry. What to Expect from ECB and BoE?

​FOMC holds rates steady, signaling no further hikes. Economic projections hint at rate cuts and a soft landing for US economy. Equities rise,...

Mint Finance

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Mint Macro Roundup: US November CPI, Lower Oil But Higher Rent

​November CPI rose 0.1% MoM, cooling to an annual rate of 3.1%. Core inflation remains at 4%, double the Fed target. Energy prices declined, but...

Mint Finance

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Soft Landing

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

FOMC holds rates steady, signaling no further hikes. Economic projections hint at rate cuts and a soft landing for US economy. Equities rise,...

November CPI rose 0.1% MoM, cooling to an annual rate of 3.1%. Core inflation remains at 4%, double the Fed target. Energy prices declined, but...