Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech is trading at one of the cheapest valuations in history, even when compared to past downturns, and has over 50% of its market cap as net cash.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends.</li>
<li>The risk to the Long/Short pair could be relative product mix performance, but we believe other factors make up for this.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech is trading at one of the cheapest valuations in history, even when compared to past downturns, and has over 50% of its market cap as net cash.
Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends.
The risk to the Long/Short pair could be relative product mix performance, but we believe other factors make up for this.


Chips Cycle Long/Short: Long Nanya Tech Vs. Short Winbond

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology has warned of a downturn that could last to the end of the year. This follows reports of procurement delays in response to excess inventory at Samsung.</li>
<li>Inflation, the Fed's attempt to kill it with higher interest rates, and the growing risk of recession now threaten not only Tokyo Electron but the entire semiconductor supply chain.</li>
<li>Record capital spending plans should be fully discounted. Potential delays and cutbacks now put a burden of uncertainty on the sector.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology has warned of a downturn that could last to the end of the year. This follows reports of procurement delays in response to excess inventory at Samsung.
Inflation, the Fed's attempt to kill it with higher interest rates, and the growing risk of recession now threaten not only Tokyo Electron but the entire semiconductor supply chain.
Record capital spending plans should be fully discounted. Potential delays and cutbacks now put a burden of uncertainty on the sector.


Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Say that we have an industry selling a commodity and we want to figure out how above average returns can be generated.</li><li>Our starting point is almost perfect competition. </li><li>We cannot create a brand, a differentiated product/service, a monopoly, a cartel or cheat.</li></ul>

Say that we have an industry selling a commodity and we want to figure out how above average returns can be generated.Our starting point is almost perfect competition. We cannot create a brand, a differentiated product/service, a monopoly, a cartel or cheat.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

<p>We maintain NEUTRAL on DRAM price corrections. As economies have reopened and caused lower expected demand for consumer PCs and Chromebooks, related OEM vendors’ tight supply has eased, leading to lower prices of standard memory units. We expect this round of DRAM price corrections to persist into 1H22. Maintain NEUTRAL. </p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We maintain NEUTRAL on DRAM price corrections. As economies have reopened and caused lower expected demand for consumer PCs and Chromebooks, related OEM vendors’ tight supply has eased, leading to lower prices of standard memory units. We expect this round of DRAM price corrections to persist into 1H22. Maintain NEUTRAL. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nanya Technology (2408 TT, NEUTRAL, NTD63.70) 

<p>Product prices may fall soon; downgrade to NEUTRAL. Nanya’s FY21 EPS is estimated at NTD6.78.. As the spot market has weakened recently, it may have impacted the company’s negotiated prices for AUG~SEP21 and caused its quarterly prices to fall. We downgrade Nanya Technology to NEUTRAL.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Product prices may fall soon; downgrade to NEUTRAL. Nanya’s FY21 EPS is estimated at NTD6.78.. As the spot market has weakened recently, it may have impacted the company’s negotiated prices for AUG~SEP21 and caused its quarterly prices to fall. We downgrade Nanya Technology to NEUTRAL.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nanya Technology (2408 TT, NEUTRAL, NTD61.40) 

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

Powertech Technology Inc. tests, packages, and assembles integrated circuits (ICS).  The Company's products and services include memory product test and various kinds of IC package services, such as thin small-outline package (TSOP) services.

Asmedia Technology Inc designs mulitmedia integrated control(IC) chip and high frequency mixed mode IC chip. The company's products inlcude high speed digit switch, nand flash controller and super speed USB controller.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. operates in the business of researching, producing and selling of LED epitaxial wafers and wafers.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Chips Cycle Long/Short: Long Nanya Tech Vs. Short Winbond

Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends. It's at the cheapest valuation in its history.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tokyo Electron (8035): Semiconductor Supply Chain at Risk of a Downturn

Nanya warning of a downturn follows excess inventory report from Samsung. Even smartphone and data center demand at risk. End of the super cycle...

Scott Foster

Earning excess returns in commodities

Say that we have an industry selling a commodity and we want to figure out how above average returns can be generated. Our starting point is almost...

Turtles all the way down