Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.</li><li>Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.</li><li>The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.

Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Choppy, range-bound trading in the major currencies continues.</li><li>The US PMI data and a sloppy 5Y auction yesterday helped drive US yields higher and lift the USD off its lows but markets are not showing an awful lot of conviction either way at this point, with event risk looming large on the near-term horizon.</li><li>Focus today turns to Q4 GDP which is expected to reflect a slowing the pace of growth to around 2.0% (the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking currently sits at 2.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Choppy, range-bound trading in the major currencies continues.The US PMI data and a sloppy 5Y auction yesterday helped drive US yields higher and lift the USD off its lows but markets are not showing an awful lot of conviction either way at this point, with event risk looming large on the near-term horizon.Focus today turns to Q4 GDP which is expected to reflect a slowing the pace of growth to around 2.0% (the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking currently sits at 2.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is trading generally lower again after failing to build on yesterday’s gains against the majors.</li><li>Market sentiment is positive on the day, with Asian (ex-Japan) and European equity markets firmly in the green; US equity futures are positive.</li><li>China announced a cut in bank reserve requirements (to take place in February) and suggested more support measures for stocks may be coming, helping risk sentiment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading generally lower again after failing to build on yesterday’s gains against the majors.Market sentiment is positive on the day, with Asian (ex-Japan) and European equity markets firmly in the green; US equity futures are positive.China announced a cut in bank reserve requirements (to take place in February) and suggested more support measures for stocks may be coming, helping risk sentiment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drops Back as Risk Mood Improves

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfounded</li><li>We prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.</li><li>While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.</li></ul>

The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfoundedWe prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading narrowly mixed against the core majors on the session so far but early losses in the EUR are helping lift the DXY back towards the ceiling of the recent consolidation range in the index and giving the USD a generally firmer look.</li><li>The JPY and AUD are leading gains among the G10 currencies, with the KRW and ZAR at the top of the overnight performance league for the expanded major currency universe.</li><li>The BoJ left monetary policy settings on hold, as expected. But Governor Ueda’s said certainty around the price outlook was rising and that policy makers would consider raising rates if the Bank’s price objectives are in sight. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading narrowly mixed against the core majors on the session so far but early losses in the EUR are helping lift the DXY back towards the ceiling of the recent consolidation range in the index and giving the USD a generally firmer look.The JPY and AUD are leading gains among the G10 currencies, with the KRW and ZAR at the top of the overnight performance league for the expanded major currency universe.The BoJ left monetary policy settings on hold, as expected. But Governor Ueda’s said certainty around the price outlook was rising and that policy makers would consider raising rates if the Bank’s price objectives are in sight. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Holds Range Ahead of GDP

The US PMI data and a sloppy 5Y auction yesterday helped drive US yields higher and lift the USD off its lows but markets are not showing an awful...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Drops Back as Risk Mood Improves

Market sentiment is positive on the day, with Asian (ex-Japan) and European equity markets firmly in the green; US equity futures are positive.

Scotiabank

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Key takeaways:The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours...

Steno Research

FX Daily - EUR Weakness Boosts DXY

The JPY and AUD are leading gains among the G10 currencies, with the KRW and ZAR at the top of the overnight performance league for the expanded...

Scotiabank

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