External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.</li><li>Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.</li><li>That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).</li><li>Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.</li><li>As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.</li><li>Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.</li><li>Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

<ul><li>Just after I sent out last week’s note, the CAD started to show some signs of a revival against the USD and averted further losses to retest the 1.39 area as I feared could be the case; there was some underlying resilience in the CAD after all.</li><li>But although the CAD has picked up ground against a soft USD this week, its 0.5% rise is the smallest among the major currencies.</li><li>The sharp slide in crude oil seemed to pin back the CAD Thursday but a look at the currency performance league on the week shows the MXN, NOK and AUD in the top five, with gains of at least 2%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Just after I sent out last week’s note, the CAD started to show some signs of a revival against the USD and averted further losses to retest the 1.39 area as I feared could be the case; there was some underlying resilience in the CAD after all.But although the CAD has picked up ground against a soft USD this week, its 0.5% rise is the smallest among the major currencies.The sharp slide in crude oil seemed to pin back the CAD Thursday but a look at the currency performance league on the week shows the MXN, NOK and AUD in the top five, with gains of at least 2%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Lags But Can Progress Against Softer USD

<ul><li>The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.</li><li>Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.</li><li>Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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MXN (USDMXN CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Retains a Soft Undertone

Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers. Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Lags But Can Progress Against Softer USD

Just after I sent out last week’s note, the CAD started to show some signs of a revival against the USD and averted further losses to retest the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved...

Scotiabank

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