Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

<ul>
<li>History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.</li>
<li>We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.</li>
<li>When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.</li>
</ul>


History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.
We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.
When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.


Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

<ul>
<li>Our aggregate bellwether earnings indicator point to a 20% decline in global earnings-per-share.</li>
<li>This contrasts sharply with market expectations, which continue to project earnings growth in all major regions.</li>
<li>Combining our earnings estimate with current global equity market valuation also results in significant downside.</li>
</ul>


Our aggregate bellwether earnings indicator point to a 20% decline in global earnings-per-share.
This contrasts sharply with market expectations, which continue to project earnings growth in all major regions.
Combining our earnings estimate with current global equity market valuation also results in significant downside.


Global Earnings on the Edge: A Concise Analysis of Key EPS Indicators

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y.</li><li>This beat consensus of $123.0 million. The revenue increase was driven by three new stores and strength in its New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia operations.</li><li>1Q adjusted EBITDA declined to $16.4 million from $17.4 million in 4Q. This was below consensus of $17.4 million.</li></ul>

Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y.This beat consensus of $123.0 million. The revenue increase was driven by three new stores and strength in its New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia operations.1Q adjusted EBITDA declined to $16.4 million from $17.4 million in 4Q. This was below consensus of $17.4 million.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 19, 2023

<ul>
<li>AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.</li>
<li>The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.</li>
<li>Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.</li>
</ul>


AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.
The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.
Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

No current stock market boom is evident, but concerns arise regarding market breadth and concentration of market value in a few major stocks.

Jeroen Blokland

Global Earnings on the Edge: A Concise Analysis of Key EPS Indicators

Our analysis of bellwether earnings indicators reveals a 20% decline in earnings-per-share for global equities is on the horizon!

Jeroen Blokland

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 19, 2023

Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y. This beat consensus of $123.0 million.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

Macro Momentum is fading, but market Momentum is building. Even though the outlook for Equities is challenging, markets couldn't care less currently.

Jeroen Blokland