Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>After a strong 1H23, global equities were down this week. The MSCI World Index fell 1.42%, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.06%.</li><li>The decline was driven by strongerthan-expected labor market data and concerns that this may make the Fed less accommodating.</li><li>The Russell 2000 finished the week down 1.32%, while the NASDAQ declined 0.92%.</li></ul>

After a strong 1H23, global equities were down this week. The MSCI World Index fell 1.42%, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.06%.The decline was driven by strongerthan-expected labor market data and concerns that this may make the Fed less accommodating.The Russell 2000 finished the week down 1.32%, while the NASDAQ declined 0.92%.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles, representing roughly 50% of the total Chinese government debt, face a maturity wall of CNY 5.5 trillion this year.</li>
<li>We expect no official defaults, implying an ongoing accommodative stance of the PBoC, further diverging from monetary policy in the rest of the world.</li>
<li>A ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, keeping insolvent LGFVs artificially alive results in misallocation of capital, lower GDP growth, lower inflation, and pressure on risk assets.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles, representing roughly 50% of the total Chinese government debt, face a maturity wall of CNY 5.5 trillion this year.
We expect no official defaults, implying an ongoing accommodative stance of the PBoC, further diverging from monetary policy in the rest of the world.
A ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, keeping insolvent LGFVs artificially alive results in misallocation of capital, lower GDP growth, lower inflation, and pressure on risk assets.


Chinese LGFVs Contribute to Lower Growth and Disinflation

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Liquidity is trending higher through a 'Stealth' QE, despite latest dip in weekly numbers</li>
<li>Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to closely monitor these vital inflow of funds</li>
<li>Fed Liquidity feeds into Global Liquidity, which includes the actions of other policy-makers, as well as the activities of private back and lenders. It has risen sizeably since late 2022</li>
</ul>


Fed Liquidity is trending higher through a 'Stealth' QE, despite latest dip in weekly numbers
Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to closely monitor these vital inflow of funds
Fed Liquidity feeds into Global Liquidity, which includes the actions of other policy-makers, as well as the activities of private back and lenders. It has risen sizeably since late 2022


‘Stealth QE’ Continues At The Fed ... Probably

<ul>
<li>Global equities finished the holiday-shortened week lower.</li>
<li>The MSCI World Index declined 2.01%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.42%.</li>
<li>This snapped a six-week winning streak for the S&amp;P 500, which is still up 13.25% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Global equities finished the holiday-shortened week lower.
The MSCI World Index declined 2.01%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.42%.
This snapped a six-week winning streak for the S&amp;P 500, which is still up 13.25% YTD.


Industry Report - Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 23, 2023

<ul>
<li>That Bank of England had to increase the pace of interest rate hikes so late in the tightening cycle is incontrovertible evidence that the central bank remains behind the curve. </li>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between consumer and producer prices, with a PPI of 1.0%, German headline inflation should be just below 2%</li>
<li>The NASDAQ Index and the US interest rates are diverging rapidly. This is not what is supposed to happen in a discounted cash flow model for growth stocks.</li>
</ul>


That Bank of England had to increase the pace of interest rate hikes so late in the tightening cycle is incontrovertible evidence that the central bank remains behind the curve. 
Based on the historical relationship between consumer and producer prices, with a PPI of 1.0%, German headline inflation should be just below 2%
The NASDAQ Index and the US interest rates are diverging rapidly. This is not what is supposed to happen in a discounted cash flow model for growth stocks.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Hawkish Twist

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Industry Report - Cannabis

The decline was driven by strongerthan-expected labor market data and concerns that this may make the Fed less accommodating. The Russell 2000...

Water Tower Research

Chinese LGFVs Contribute to Lower Growth and Disinflation

The debt issues at Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles lead to a misallocation of capital, lower growth, disinflation, and pressure on risk...

Jeroen Blokland

‘Stealth QE’ Continues At The Fed ... Probably

Global Liquidity is being fuelled by a US-led 'Stealth' QE. Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to...

Michael J. Howell

Industry Report - Cannabis News for the Week Ending June 23, 2023

Global equities finished the holiday-shortened week lower. The MSCI World Index declined 2.01%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.42%.

Water Tower Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Hawkish Twist

The Bank of England confirms central banks and more monetary tightening is coming. Will investors shy away from (very) expensive equities and look...

Jeroen Blokland