Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.</li>
<li>China's reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.</li>
<li>Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.</li>
</ul>


The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.
China's reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.
Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.


Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way

<ul>
<li>Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. </li>
<li>Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.</li>
<li>After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.</li>
</ul>


Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. 
Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.
After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.


Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global equities fell last week, as investors digested the latest CPI data and debt ceiling news. The MSCI World Index dropped 0.51%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.25%.</li><li>The small-cap Russell 2000 slid 1.00%, while the NASDAQ bucked the trend and gained 0.40%.</li><li>After two strong weeks, cannabis stocks got crushed. The MSOS ETF ended -17.71% and blue-chip operator Trulieve was down 29.02% last week.</li></ul>

Global equities fell last week, as investors digested the latest CPI data and debt ceiling news. The MSCI World Index dropped 0.51%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.25%.The small-cap Russell 2000 slid 1.00%, while the NASDAQ bucked the trend and gained 0.40%.After two strong weeks, cannabis stocks got crushed. The MSOS ETF ended -17.71% and blue-chip operator Trulieve was down 29.02% last week.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 12, 2023

<ul>
<li>We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold and cash and remove the marginal overweight in Developed Market Treasuries.</li>
<li>US equities have celebrated the end of more recent Fed tightening cycles and tend to outperform Gold and Commodities when inflation has peaked.</li>
<li>We remain underweight Developed Market Equities because of deteriorating Macro Indicators and earnings expectations that are too optimistic.</li>
</ul>


We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold and cash and remove the marginal overweight in Developed Market Treasuries.
US equities have celebrated the end of more recent Fed tightening cycles and tend to outperform Gold and Commodities when inflation has peaked.
We remain underweight Developed Market Equities because of deteriorating Macro Indicators and earnings expectations that are too optimistic.


Changes in Portfolio Weights: Calibrating the Weight of Nominal and Real Assets.

<ul>
<li>Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans point to a US recession.</li>
<li>Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans suggest the US high yield default rate should quadruple this year to above 7% from 1.7% last year.</li>
<li>Equity market valuation has recently increased, moving in the exact opposite direction of lending standards.</li>
</ul>


Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans point to a US recession.
Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans suggest the US high yield default rate should quadruple this year to above 7% from 1.7% last year.
Equity market valuation has recently increased, moving in the exact opposite direction of lending standards.


Fed Lending Survey: Bad for Growth, Spreads, and Equities

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way

The latest round of data shows Macro Momentum is fading, something that equity markets and other risky assets are not pricing currently.

Jeroen Blokland

Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. Commodities lag once the tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 12, 2023

After two strong weeks, cannabis stocks got crushed. The MSOS ETF ended -17.71% and blue-chip operator Trulieve was down 29.02% last week.

Water Tower Research

Changes in Portfolio Weights: Calibrating the Weight of Nominal and Real Assets.

We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold, which remains overweight, and cash.

Jeroen Blokland

Fed Lending Survey: Bad for Growth, Spreads, and Equities

Based on tighter lending standards, the US high yield default rate should quadruple to above 7% from 1.7% last year, and bond spreads must widen...

Jeroen Blokland