Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit.

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit. 

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

FOMC is likely to be concerned by the clear upward spurt in core inflation. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting hot on the heels of most inflation gauges breaching the Fed's oft-stated inflation target of 2% YoY. While the Fed has formally targeted the core PCE deflator, it also pays attention to the headline PCE deflator. The latter breached the 2% mark in March 2018 (rising by 2.01% YoY), while the core PCE deflator rose 1.9% (1.88% to be precise) YoY in March 2018, getting…

FOMC is likely to be concerned by the clear upward spurt in core inflation. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting hot on the heels of most inflation gauges breaching the Fed's oft-stated inflation target of 2% YoY. While the Fed has formally targeted the core PCE deflator, it also pays attention to the headline PCE deflator. The latter breached the 2% mark in March 2018 (rising by 2.01% YoY), while the core PCE deflator rose 1.9% (1.88% to be precise) YoY in March 2018, getting…

With the Inflation Target Breached, Can the Fed Postpone Signalling Faster Rate Hikes?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows. Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been...

Peter Beuttell

With the Inflation Target Breached, Can the Fed Postpone Signalling Faster Rate Hikes?

FOMC is likely to be concerned by the clear upward spurt in core inflation. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting hot on the heels of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength...

Vermilion Research

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer. The resumption of the rise in US...

Greg Gibbs

Technical Appraisal of Global Markets

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still...

Vermilion Research