Frontier and Emerging Markets, Indigo Frontier

Dylan Waller

Frontier and Emerging Markets

Indigo Frontier

Writing about things that I plan to invest in during the next decade

Frontier Market and Emerging Markets

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Commodity price gyrations and political black swan events will shape frontier and emerging equity markets during the next few years.</li>
<li>2022-2023 are the best years to selectively shop for attractive narratives, as normalization in commodity prices and geopolitical tensions is necessary in order to adopt a holistic bullish view of emerging market equities.</li>
<li>If equity valuations move towards Post 2008 levels, then emerging market equities could be one of the most attractive buys of this decade by 2024 or later.</li>
</ul>


Commodity price gyrations and political black swan events will shape frontier and emerging equity markets during the next few years.
2022-2023 are the best years to selectively shop for attractive narratives, as normalization in commodity prices and geopolitical tensions is necessary in order to adopt a holistic bullish view of emerging market equities.
If equity valuations move towards Post 2008 levels, then emerging market equities could be one of the most attractive buys of this decade by 2024 or later.


Commodities, Politics, and Mispriced Securities in Emerging Markets

<ul><li>Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market catalysts are present.</li><li>However, with MSCI Egypt trading at circa six times forward earnings, a near 50% discount to MSCI Emerging Markets, Egypt appears to be positioned very well in terms of relative value</li><li>Some of the major headwinds approaching include food/energy inflation, declining tourism, and Egypt’s entry into another IMF program this year</li></ul>

Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market catalysts are present.However, with MSCI Egypt trading at circa six times forward earnings, a near 50% discount to MSCI Emerging Markets, Egypt appears to be positioned very well in terms of relative valueSome of the major headwinds approaching include food/energy inflation, declining tourism, and Egypt’s entry into another IMF program this year

Egyptian Equities Are Approaching a Bottom

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Commodities, Politics, and Mispriced Securities in Emerging Markets

Commodity price gyrations and political black swan events will shape frontier and emerging equity markets during the next few years.

Dylan Waller

Egyptian Equities Are Approaching a Bottom

Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market...

Dylan Waller