Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;</li>
<li>With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;</li>
<li>The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.</li>
</ul>


Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.


What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quantumpharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40369:1" rel="noopener">QuantumPharm (QUP HK)</a> raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO.
QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


QuantumPharm IPO Trading - Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

Research from ACF Equity Research, ACF Equity Research

ACF Equity Research

Research from ACF Equity Research

Accuracy | Clarity | Foresight

ACF was set up to improve the effectiveness of capital markets for smaller and mid-sized companies. The majority of jobs are created by smaller companies not global companies. If we can help improve companies use of capital markets more projects will be completed, more jobs created, more global GDP grown, which in turn helps create more resources for education, leading to equality and opportunity for those who are still oppressed by ignorance and poverty.

ACF Equity Research is an independent research house specialising in the highest specification independent equity research for corporate clients.

We deliver premium independent corporate sponsored equity research characterised by its accuracy, clarity and foresight based upon a fundamental valuation approach.

Our independent research is designed to educate our professional investor readers about your company, with an emphasis on clear and accurate explanations. Our mission is to improve company’s liquidity through credible equity research services, excellent international distribution and reliable access for investment managers.

We believe in the importance and value of clarity, the careful articulation of technical ideas, concepts and solutions.

Our team of analysts are independently minded individuals who believe in thoroughness, technical competence and clear punchy communications.

<ul><li>Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential.</li><li>In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation and strategy, the sub-sector has pivoted and the market remains innovative and attracts investment capital.</li><li>Rather than replace entire tissues, which is a complex activity, we believe the immediate future for stem cells is more likely to be in the successful stimulation of the bodies on repair mechanisms.</li></ul>

Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential.In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation and strategy, the sub-sector has pivoted and the market remains innovative and attracts investment capital.Rather than replace entire tissues, which is a complex activity, we believe the immediate future for stem cells is more likely to be in the successful stimulation of the bodies on repair mechanisms.

Abbvie Inc - Regenerative Healthcare - Stem Cells & ALS Thematic 10062024

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quantumpharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40369:1" rel="noopener">QuantumPharm (QUP HK)</a> (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.</li>
<li>In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss QuantumPharm's PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.
In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we discuss QuantumPharm's PHIP updates.


QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Strong Growth, Although Losses Continue to Pile Up

<ul>
<li>Disputable Phase III result of Akeso's (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso's share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;</li>
<li>The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab's global prospects against (1) Merck's Keytruda, (2) J&amp;J's Rybrevant, (3) Kelun's SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent's IBI305;</li>
<li>Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264's Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112's head-to-head trial against Keytruda.</li>
</ul>


Disputable Phase III result of Akeso's (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso's share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;
The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab's global prospects against (1) Merck's Keytruda, (2) J&amp;J's Rybrevant, (3) Kelun's SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent's IBI305;
Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264's Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112's head-to-head trial against Keytruda.


Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

United States

Merck & Co., Inc.  is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products, which it markets directly and through its joint ventures. The Company has operations in pharmaceutical, animal health, and consumer care.

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Merck & Co (MRK US)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

QuantumPharm IPO Trading - Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we...

Clarence Chu

Abbvie Inc - Regenerative Healthcare - Stem Cells & ALS Thematic 10062024

Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential. In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation...

ACF Equity Research

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Strong Growth, Although Losses Continue to Pile Up

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss QuantumPharm's PHIP updates.

Clarence Chu

Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

​Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

QuantumPharm IPO Trading - Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we...

Clarence Chu

Abbvie Inc - Regenerative Healthcare - Stem Cells & ALS Thematic 10062024

Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential. In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation...

ACF Equity Research

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Strong Growth, Although Losses Continue to Pile Up

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss QuantumPharm's PHIP updates.

Clarence Chu

Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

​Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...