Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Disputable Phase III result of Akeso's (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso's share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;</li>
<li>The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab's global prospects against (1) Merck's Keytruda, (2) J&amp;J's Rybrevant, (3) Kelun's SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent's IBI305;</li>
<li>Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264's Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112's head-to-head trial against Keytruda.</li>
</ul>


Disputable Phase III result of Akeso's (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso's share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;
The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab's global prospects against (1) Merck's Keytruda, (2) J&amp;J's Rybrevant, (3) Kelun's SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent's IBI305;
Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264's Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112's head-to-head trial against Keytruda.


Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

<ul>
<li>Cancer is the most common cause of death in Japan, and at 282.9 cases per 100 000 people, it ranks at the upper end of the global recorded range.</li>
<li>In 2020, Daiichi Sankyo embarked on transforming to a leading oncology specialist in terms of new drug development.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC pipeline comprises of six higher level drugs with a number of indications (sub-categories). This pipeline is part of a universe of 2499 oncology drugs in development.</li>
</ul>


Cancer is the most common cause of death in Japan, and at 282.9 cases per 100 000 people, it ranks at the upper end of the global recorded range.
In 2020, Daiichi Sankyo embarked on transforming to a leading oncology specialist in terms of new drug development.
Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC pipeline comprises of six higher level drugs with a number of indications (sub-categories). This pipeline is part of a universe of 2499 oncology drugs in development.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-wantai-biological-phar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30129:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)</a> announced that its net profit for 2023 declined 71–75% YoY to RMB1.20–1.35B mainly due to the market competition.</li>
<li>China’s HPV vaccine market is highly competitive. Beijing Wantai has no presence in higher valent HPV vaccine segment, which dominates the domestic market.</li>
<li>Although the company will be one of the early movers in domestically developed nonavalent HPV vaccines, at least three more players will follow soon, thereby making the space more competitive.</li>
</ul>



Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH) announced that its net profit for 2023 declined 71–75% YoY to RMB1.20–1.35B mainly due to the market competition.
China’s HPV vaccine market is highly competitive. Beijing Wantai has no presence in higher valent HPV vaccine segment, which dominates the domestic market.
Although the company will be one of the early movers in domestically developed nonavalent HPV vaccines, at least three more players will follow soon, thereby making the space more competitive.


Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> has reported better-than-expected 3QFY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and profit, mainly driven by global mainstay products such as Enhertu and Lixiana, and favorable forex.</li>
<li>Driven by favorable Fx, sales increase from couple of products, and litigation payment, the company raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively.</li>
<li>FDA set an action date for Daiichi Sankyo’s second ADC drug candidate HER3-DXd of June 26 and for Dato-DXd of December 20. Both are for various types of lung cancers.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) has reported better-than-expected 3QFY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and profit, mainly driven by global mainstay products such as Enhertu and Lixiana, and favorable forex.
Driven by favorable Fx, sales increase from couple of products, and litigation payment, the company raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively.
FDA set an action date for Daiichi Sankyo’s second ADC drug candidate HER3-DXd of June 26 and for Dato-DXd of December 20. Both are for various types of lung cancers.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quantumpharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40369:1" rel="noopener">QuantumPharm (QUP HK)</a> (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn

United States

Merck & Co., Inc.  is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products, which it markets directly and through its joint ventures. The Company has operations in pharmaceutical, animal health, and consumer care.

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Merck & Co (MRK US)

Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

Daiichi Sankyo has increased focus on high growth oncology and entered into a potentially very lucrative deal with Merck. We like the company, we...

Avien Pillay

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Beijing Wantai expects 70%+ decline in net profit in 2023 due to competition. Going ahead, competition is expected to intensify further in China...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...

Tina Banerjee

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not so positive...

Clarence Chu

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Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

​Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

Daiichi Sankyo has increased focus on high growth oncology and entered into a potentially very lucrative deal with Merck. We like the company, we...

Avien Pillay

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Beijing Wantai expects 70%+ decline in net profit in 2023 due to competition. Going ahead, competition is expected to intensify further in China...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

​Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...

Tina Banerjee

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not so positive...

Clarence Chu

Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...