Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> gives you deeply discounted exposure to one of the highest quality companies listed in the Emerging Markets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>. Should you back out the estimated fair values of all investments outside of Prosus’ 31% holding in Tencent from the current Naspers market cap, you are effectively buying exposure to Tencent for only 16.2x 2021F earnings.</p>
<p>Often overlooked, Naspers also gives exposure to a diverse range of online businesses, in differing stages of development, which are likely to structurally benefited from lasting changes to consumer behaviour in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Further, Management has signalled their focus on meaningfully reducing its discount to listed net asset value by implementing a $5bn share buyback program, during November 2020, which should also support the share price through volatility in the near term. </p>
<p>The key risk to the investment thesis regards the newly proposed Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for the Platform Economy released by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), a clear signal of tougher antitrust regulations going forward. Tencent should, however, be able to manage through these better than the large eCommerce players.</p>

Naspers (NPN SJ) gives you deeply discounted exposure to one of the highest quality companies listed in the Emerging Markets, Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Should you back out the estimated fair values of all investments outside of Prosus’ 31% holding in Tencent from the current Naspers market cap, you are effectively buying exposure to Tencent for only 16.2x 2021F earnings.
Often overlooked, Naspers also gives exposure to a diverse range of online businesses, in differing stages of development, which are likely to structurally benefited from lasting changes to consumer behaviour in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further, Management has signalled their focus on meaningfully reducing its discount to listed net asset value by implementing a $5bn share buyback program, during November 2020, which should also support the share price through volatility in the near term. 
The key risk to the investment thesis regards the newly proposed Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for the Platform Economy released by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), a clear signal of tougher antitrust regulations going forward. Tencent should, however, be able to manage through these better than the large eCommerce players.

2021 High Conviction: Naspers, Deeply Discounted Exposure to Accelerating Online Sales

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%</p><p>However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  </p><p>In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.</p><p>We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.</p><p>The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12310:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)</a> .</p><p><em>Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  </em></p><p><em>Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn</em></p>

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) and Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

China's Next Generation:  Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Financials and Health Care stocks, and decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communication Services, Information Technology and Real Estate names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20185:1" rel="noopener">Miura Co Ltd (6005 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-corp-aichi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12942:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Machine Mfg (6134 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Financials, while shorts were covered on Consumer Staples.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were seen on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-chemicals-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26190:1" rel="noopener">Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-oil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1667:1" rel="noopener">S Oil Corp (010950 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wiwynn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27838:1" rel="noopener">Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/century-iron-steel-indus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8853:1" rel="noopener">Century Iron &amp; Steel Indus (9958 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-petrochemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20875:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) and Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) while there was short covering on Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK). Shorts increased in Financials and Health Care stocks, and decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communication Services, Information Technology and Real Estate names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP), Mercari Inc (4385 JP) and Miura Co Ltd (6005 JP) while shorts decreased on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Fuji Machine Mfg (6134 JP), Casio Computer (6952 JP) and Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Financials, while shorts were covered on Consumer Staples.In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were seen on Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS) while shorts were covered on Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS), S Oil Corp (010950 KS) and HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Asustek Computer (2357 TT), Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT) and Largan Precision (3008 TT) while shorts were covered on Unimicron Technology (3037 TT), Century Iron &amp; Steel Indus (9958 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Haier, Sunny Optical, Itochu, Mercari, Toshiba, HMM, Asustek, Acer

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> listed associates have continued their exceptional share price performance over the past 6 months, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>. I estimate that Tencent’s associates currently contribute c.23% to its market cap, which would imply that their consolidated operations are currently trading at only 23.1x rolling 12-month forward earnings.</p><p><em>Please also refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-a-closer-look-at-investees-reveals-a-discount-rating-and-future-value-unlock-potential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42361" rel="noopener">Tencent: A Closer Look at Investees Reveals a Discount Rating and Future Value Unlock Potential</a> for more detail on this analysis.</em></p>

Tencent Holdings (700 HK) listed associates have continued their exceptional share price performance over the past 6 months, led by Meituan (3690 HK), Pinduoduo (PDD US)  and JD.com (HK) (9618 HK). I estimate that Tencent’s associates currently contribute c.23% to its market cap, which would imply that their consolidated operations are currently trading at only 23.1x rolling 12-month forward earnings.Please also refer to Tencent: A Closer Look at Investees Reveals a Discount Rating and Future Value Unlock Potential for more detail on this analysis.

Tencent: Listed Associates Continue to Outperform

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> is seeking to raise as much as $4.85 billion through an issue of shares and convertible note. Pinduoduo will offer $1,750 million five-year notes, which is callable and puttable from December 2023. Concurrently with the notes offering, Pinduoduo is also offering 22 million ADSs which is worth around $3.1 billion at the last close price of $142.03 per ADS. The funds will be invested in agricultural logistics infrastructure and responsive manufacturing to capitalise on the online migration of retail, in particular consumers desire to buy fresh grocery more conveniently and frequently. Pinduoduo’s newest business, <em>Duo Duo Maicai</em>, a next-day self pick-up grocery service, is a natural extension of its e-commerce model to agriculture.</p><p>Pinduoduo is a rare beast – a China new economy company which lives up to the hype. The financial performance is heading in the right direction with the 3Q20 results showing a re-acceleration in revenue growth and narrowing losses. The balance sheet is strong with cash of RMB45,575 ($7.0 billion) and net cash (including lease liabilities and convertibles) of RMB36,723 ($5.6 billion) as of 3Q20. A successful offering will further add to Pinduoduo’s war chest to take on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We remain bullish on Pinduoduo’s prospects and believe that potential new antitrust rules curbing market dominance in China will benefit relatively smaller challengers like Pinduoduo. Our DCF-based price target is $165 per ADS, implying a 16% upside to the last close. Overall, we would participate in the placement.</p></div>

Pinduoduo (PDD US) is seeking to raise as much as $4.85 billion through an issue of shares and convertible note. Pinduoduo will offer $1,750 million five-year notes, which is callable and puttable from December 2023. Concurrently with the notes offering, Pinduoduo is also offering 22 million ADSs which is worth around $3.1 billion at the last close price of $142.03 per ADS. The funds will be invested in agricultural logistics infrastructure and responsive manufacturing to capitalise on the online migration of retail, in particular consumers desire to buy fresh grocery more conveniently and frequently. Pinduoduo’s newest business, Duo Duo Maicai, a next-day self pick-up grocery service, is a natural extension of its e-commerce model to agriculture.Pinduoduo is a rare beast – a China new economy company which lives up to the hype. The financial performance is heading in the right direction with the 3Q20 results showing a re-acceleration in revenue growth and narrowing losses. The balance sheet is strong with cash of RMB45,575 ($7.0 billion) and net cash (including lease liabilities and convertibles) of RMB36,723 ($5.6 billion) as of 3Q20. A successful offering will further add to Pinduoduo’s war chest to take on Alibaba Group (BABA US) and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US). We remain bullish on Pinduoduo’s prospects and believe that potential new antitrust rules curbing market dominance in China will benefit relatively smaller challengers like Pinduoduo. Our DCF-based price target is $165 per ADS, implying a 16% upside to the last close. Overall, we would participate in the placement.

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

2021 High Conviction: Naspers, Deeply Discounted Exposure to Accelerating Online Sales

Naspers: Deeply discounted exposure to Tencent, a diverse range of online businesses set to benefit from accelerated online activity post-COVID-19...

Wium Malan, CFA

China's Next Generation: Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

China exposure is becoming more concentrated in a small number of large cap stocks. We identify the next generation of China stocks by analyzing...

Steven Holden

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Haier, Sunny Optical, Itochu, Mercari, Toshiba, HMM, Asustek, Acer

This Insight looks at short interest movements in stocks across Asian markets and highlights stocks that have seen large increase/ decrease in...

Brian Freitas

Tencent: Listed Associates Continue to Outperform

Tencent’s associates currently contribute c.23% to its market cap, which would imply that their consolidated operations are currently trading at...

Wium Malan, CFA

Pinduoduo Placement: A Bigger War Chest

Pinduoduo is seeking to raise as much as $4.85 billion through an issue of shares and convertible note. We remain bullish on its prospects and we...

Arun George

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