Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On August 7th, Meituan's on-demand order volume reached a historical high of 98mn on surging orders from street drinks. Meituan has connected to the backend systems of street drink vendors;</li>
<li>Delivery order is a double-edged sword. It boosts volume at the expense of margin. Further, the ownership of the volume is questionable;</li>
<li>With Pin-hao-fan, Meituan already atomized the small restaurants. Now Meituan is playing the same trick with street drinks. The result will be more dramatic to the benefit of Meituan.</li>
</ul>


On August 7th, Meituan's on-demand order volume reached a historical high of 98mn on surging orders from street drinks. Meituan has connected to the backend systems of street drink vendors;
Delivery order is a double-edged sword. It boosts volume at the expense of margin. Further, the ownership of the volume is questionable;
With Pin-hao-fan, Meituan already atomized the small restaurants. Now Meituan is playing the same trick with street drinks. The result will be more dramatic to the benefit of Meituan.


O2O Playing a More Prominent Role in China Street Drinks

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 22.6% YoY in 4Q23, three percentage points higher than we expected.</li>
<li>MT’s operating profit broke even for the fiscal year 2023.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 113% and a price target of HK$188. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 22.6% YoY in 4Q23, three percentage points higher than we expected.
MT’s operating profit broke even for the fiscal year 2023.
We conclude an upside of 113% and a price target of HK$188. Buy.


MT / Meituan (3690 HK): 2023 - Broke Even for First Year

<ul>
<li>In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will have the fourth profitable quarter.</li>
<li>We believe Douyin will not threaten MT in the long run according to other competitors’ failure.</li>
<li>We believe EPS will reach RMB0.35 in 4Q23 and RMB2.23 in 2023.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will have the fourth profitable quarter.
We believe Douyin will not threaten MT in the long run according to other competitors’ failure.
We believe EPS will reach RMB0.35 in 4Q23 and RMB2.23 in 2023.


MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>We expect Meituan’s C2Q24 rev. and non-IFRS NI to be 0.7% and 12.3% higher than cons, driven by resilient catering demand and eased competition.</li>
<li>We expect Meituan in-store OPM improve to 33%/35% in 2Q24/2H24 supported by increasing commission rate and cutting BD cost.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP by HK$4 to HK$160/share to factor in the better profitability.</li>
</ul>


We expect Meituan’s C2Q24 rev. and non-IFRS NI to be 0.7% and 12.3% higher than cons, driven by resilient catering demand and eased competition.
We expect Meituan in-store OPM improve to 33%/35% in 2Q24/2H24 supported by increasing commission rate and cutting BD cost.
We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP by HK$4 to HK$160/share to factor in the better profitability.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$160) TP Change]: Resilient Catering & Eased Competition Support Growth

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26970'>Meituan</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Meituan

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

O2O Playing a More Prominent Role in China Street Drinks

Meituan benefits from surge in delivery orders for street drinks, reaching record high order volume on August 7. Street drink brands are more rely...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MT / Meituan (3690 HK): 2023 - Broke Even for First Year

In 4Q23, the revenue growth rate was three percentage points higher than we expected. MT’s operating profit broke even for the first year. We...

Ming Lu

MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will book the fourth profitable quarter. We believe Douyin will not threat MT in the...

Ming Lu

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$160) TP Change]: Resilient Catering & Eased Competition Support Growth

Meituan's strong performance in Q2 2024 driven by resilient catering demand and improved profitability, stock maintained as BUY with raised target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

O2O Playing a More Prominent Role in China Street Drinks

​Meituan benefits from surge in delivery orders for street drinks, reaching record high order volume on August 7. Street drink brands are more rely...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MT / Meituan (3690 HK): 2023 - Broke Even for First Year

In 4Q23, the revenue growth rate was three percentage points higher than we expected. MT’s operating profit broke even for the first year. We...

Ming Lu

MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will book the fourth profitable quarter. We believe Douyin will not threat MT in the...

Ming Lu

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$160) TP Change]: Resilient Catering & Eased Competition Support Growth

​Meituan's strong performance in Q2 2024 driven by resilient catering demand and improved profitability, stock maintained as BUY with raised target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Meituan benefits from surge in delivery orders for street drinks, reaching record high order volume on August 7. Street drink brands are more rely...

Meituan's strong performance in Q2 2024 driven by resilient catering demand and improved profitability, stock maintained as BUY with raised target...