Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.<br><br>Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In a Hong Kong exchange report released in July 2019, the exchange highlighted that flows from mainland China accounted for 12% of the total trading volume in the market and is ahead of the US investors' 10% and UK investors' 7% share respectively. <br><br>We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.<br><br>In this insight, we will highlight inflows into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>.</p>

In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.  Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In a Hong Kong exchange report released in July 2019, the exchange highlighted that flows from mainland China accounted for 12% of the total trading volume in the market and is ahead of the US investors' 10% and UK investors' 7% share respectively.   We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.  In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), as well as Meituan (3690 HK).

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent Led the Inflows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-int-l-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22803:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Information Technology sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services and Financials sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1" rel="noopener">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Financials and Communication Services sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology and Consumer Staples sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> during the week.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hannstar-display-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13922:1" rel="noopener">Hannstar Display (6116 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focaltech-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11240:1" rel="noopener">Focaltech Systems (3545 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK). Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Information Technology sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services and Financials sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Nexon (3659 JP), Orix Corp (8591 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) while shorts decreased on Shiseido Company (4911 JP), Tokai Carbon (5301 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP). Shorts increased in the Financials and Communication Services sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology and Consumer Staples sectors.In Korea, shorts decreased on Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS) during the week.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), TSMC (2330 TT) and Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT) while shorts were covered on Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT), Hannstar Display (6116 TT), Taiwan Cement (1101 TT), Focaltech Systems (3545 TT) and Winbond Electronics (2344 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Meituan, WuxiBio, Tencent, Nexon, Orix, Toshiba, Shiseido, Samsung, Hannstar

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>China posts fastest GDP growth on record</li>
<li>One month to comply, Beijing tells big tech</li>
<li>You can even spend DCEP deep in the South China Sea</li>
<li>Climate talks for veteran envoys </li>
<li>Debt trap? Montenegro’s road to nowhere</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
China posts fastest GDP growth on record
One month to comply, Beijing tells big tech
You can even spend DCEP deep in the South China Sea
Climate talks for veteran envoys 
Debt trap? Montenegro’s road to nowhere
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The ride-hailing giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> announced on Tuesday (13th April 2021) that it plans to go public in the US via a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>  at a proposed valuation (pro-forma) of approx. US$39.6bn.</p><p>In our previous insight on Grab’s SPAC deal, we discussed the company’s growth prospects and its financials. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation using a SOTP.</p>

The ride-hailing giant Grab (0967655D SP) announced on Tuesday (13th April 2021) that it plans to go public in the US via a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)  at a proposed valuation (pro-forma) of approx. US$39.6bn.In our previous insight on Grab’s SPAC deal, we discussed the company’s growth prospects and its financials. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation using a SOTP.

Grab: SOTP Suggests Steep Discount to Proposed SPAC Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is Southeast Asia’s leading super-app and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/grab-spac-deal-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50305" rel="noopener">Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods</a>, we looked at Grab's fundamentals and management forecasts. We noted that Grab is using its super-app status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish.  </p><p>In this note, we look at the valuation. As a reminder, the deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>At first glance, Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its delivery and mobility businesses. However, we think that judging Grab's multiples based on such peers is missing the point. Grab's key competitive advantage and investor pitch is that it can be credibly billed as a super-app rather than just a leading app in a narrow market category.</p>
<p>Super-apps tend to be rare and investors are starved of publicly listed opportunities. With the regulatory heat turned up on the Chinese super-apps, alternative super-app plays in Asia are likely to be in demand. When judged against global super-apps, Grab's implied multiples seems more justifiable for its forecast growth.  </p>
</div>

Grab (0967655D SP) is Southeast Asia’s leading super-app and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US).In Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods, we looked at Grab's fundamentals and management forecasts. We noted that Grab is using its super-app status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish.  In this note, we look at the valuation. As a reminder, the deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue.
At first glance, Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its delivery and mobility businesses. However, we think that judging Grab's multiples based on such peers is missing the point. Grab's key competitive advantage and investor pitch is that it can be credibly billed as a super-app rather than just a leading app in a narrow market category.
Super-apps tend to be rare and investors are starved of publicly listed opportunities. With the regulatory heat turned up on the Chinese super-apps, alternative super-app plays in Asia are likely to be in demand. When judged against global super-apps, Grab's implied multiples seems more justifiable for its forecast growth.  


Grab SPAC Deal: A Sensible Super-App Valuation?

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent Led the Inflows

We note that there has been weekly net inflows into Tencent in the past five weeks. Last 30 day inflows into Tencent amounted to USD 2.4bn.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Short Interest: Meituan, WuxiBio, Tencent, Nexon, Orix, Toshiba, Shiseido, Samsung, Hannstar

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

GDP, SAMR, DCEP, USA-PRC and BRI

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Grab: SOTP Suggests Steep Discount to Proposed SPAC Valuation

Our SOTP valuation implies significant downside to Grab’s pro-forma valuation of the proposed SPAC deal even after assigning generous target...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Grab SPAC Deal: A Sensible Super-App Valuation?

Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its businesses. When judged against other global super-apps,...

Arun George

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