Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">BrainBees Solutions (FIRSTCRY IN)</a> reported marginal decline in 1QFY2025 revenues and GMV (India operations) versus previous quarter, though both were up 17% YoY; fell short of market expectations.</li>
<li>Key operating metrics for India business too were soft with Average Order Value slipping both on a QoQ and YoY basis, impacting GMV growth and segment margins.</li>
<li>With 0% promoter holding, nearly 30%-50% shares could possibly start trading post lock-in expiry and this could test the stock's resilience. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group(9984 JP)</a>, the biggest stake holder, owns 19.99%.</li>
</ul>



BrainBees Solutions (FIRSTCRY IN) reported marginal decline in 1QFY2025 revenues and GMV (India operations) versus previous quarter, though both were up 17% YoY; fell short of market expectations.
Key operating metrics for India business too were soft with Average Order Value slipping both on a QoQ and YoY basis, impacting GMV growth and segment margins.
With 0% promoter holding, nearly 30%-50% shares could possibly start trading post lock-in expiry and this could test the stock's resilience. Softbank Group(9984 JP), the biggest stake holder, owns 19.99%.


Brainbees (FIRSTCRY IN): First Results Fail to Cheer. Lock-In Expiry May Test Stock Resilience

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM respectively.</li><li>The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) degrew by 1-4% YoY (up 3% MoM), largely due to weakness in MSIL/Tata Motors/Hyundai/ Honda partly offset by strong domestic SUV volumes by Toyota/ M&amp;M/ Kia/ MG.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~11% YoY (marginally up 3% MoM) mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes which were partly set off by high bus volumes). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM respectively.The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) degrew by 1-4% YoY (up 3% MoM), largely due to weakness in MSIL/Tata Motors/Hyundai/ Honda partly offset by strong domestic SUV volumes by Toyota/ M&amp;M/ Kia/ MG.The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~11% YoY (marginally up 3% MoM) mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes which were partly set off by high bus volumes). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Recent media reports on declining passenger vehicle (PV) sales in India for August are based on wholesale data and reflect expected weakness due to high dealer inventory levels.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a>'s  dispatches dropped by 8% in August, yet the company remains strong in the SUV segment, with the Creta, launched in January 2024, driving growth.</li>
<li>Outlook for the passenger vehicle segment is cautiously optimistic, supported by monsoon impact, festive season, new product launches, but challenges like heavy rainfall, high inventory levels, and economic uncertainties persist.</li>
</ul>


Recent media reports on declining passenger vehicle (PV) sales in India for August are based on wholesale data and reflect expected weakness due to high dealer inventory levels.

Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)'s  dispatches dropped by 8% in August, yet the company remains strong in the SUV segment, with the Creta, launched in January 2024, driving growth.
Outlook for the passenger vehicle segment is cautiously optimistic, supported by monsoon impact, festive season, new product launches, but challenges like heavy rainfall, high inventory levels, and economic uncertainties persist.


India Autos: Expected Weak Wholesale Data. Hyundai Dispatches Drop in August

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Hyundai Motor India  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Hyundai Motor India is market cap of US$18.6 billion, based on P/E of 24.4x our estimated net profit of 64.1 billion INR in FY25. </li>
<li>There have been some increasing concerns about Hyundai Motor India paying out higher royalty to its parent Hyundai Motor and dividend to shareholders, which could lower profit.</li>
<li>According to a recent article by livemint, the expected valuation of Hyundai Motor India has fallen to about USD16 billion to USD20 billion.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Hyundai Motor India is market cap of US$18.6 billion, based on P/E of 24.4x our estimated net profit of 64.1 billion INR in FY25. 
There have been some increasing concerns about Hyundai Motor India paying out higher royalty to its parent Hyundai Motor and dividend to shareholders, which could lower profit.
According to a recent article by livemint, the expected valuation of Hyundai Motor India has fallen to about USD16 billion to USD20 billion.


Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)</li><li>Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Brainbees (FIRSTCRY IN): First Results Fail to Cheer. Lock-In Expiry May Test Stock Resilience

Lock-in expiry may test stock price resilience as company's 0% promoter holding imply 30%-50% shares could start trading. Lack lustre growth and...

Devi Subhakesan

Auto Monthly Volume August 2024

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM...

Axis Direct

India Autos: Expected Weak Wholesale Data. Hyundai Dispatches Drop in August

Hyundai Motor India's dispatches dropped by 8% in August, yet it remains strong in the SUV segment. Slipped to third place in retail market share...

Devi Subhakesan

Hyundai Motor India IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Hyundai Motor India is market cap of US$18.6 billion, based on P/E of 24.4x our estimated net profit of 64.1 billion INR...

Douglas Kim

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies

HDFC Securities

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