'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/206/original/2020-07-31_06-20-27.png?1596144054" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>NEW LOWS</strong> - As more quarterly results &amp; forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday. We expect at least half of the gap to the 2009 lows to be closed by the end of August. The market continues to rest in the comfort of the central banks' 'cotton wool'. Our picks of the best and worst results of the day are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu (6754 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, respectively. There was also an interesting divergence between the two 'M&amp;A' specialists, as we reveal in the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/208/original/2020-07-31_06-31-18.png?1596144693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149208"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/209/original/2020-07-31_06-30-54.png?1596144708" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149209"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics<hr>
</div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>189 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 56 Positive / 8 Neutral / 125 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.8</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.2% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.2ppt <em>(ex AnGes)</em>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 29%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>75 Annual • 43 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 21 Positive / 3 Neutral / 51 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 9 Positive / 0 Neutral / 34 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.0</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsNEW LOWS - As more quarterly results &amp; forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday. We expect at least half of the gap to the 2009 lows to be closed by the end of August. The market continues to rest in the comfort of the central banks' 'cotton wool'. Our picks of the best and worst results of the day are Anritsu (6754 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP), respectively. There was also an interesting divergence between the two 'M&amp;A' specialists, as we reveal in the DETAIL below.Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS189 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 56 Positive / 8 Neutral / 125 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.8

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.2% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt (ex AnGes)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%
 75 Annual • 43 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 21 Positive / 3 Neutral / 51 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 9 Positive / 0 Neutral / 34 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.0


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th July - Anritsu, ZOZO, M&As, O-Land, MELCO, Advantest

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/715/original/2020-01-31_05-07-06.png?1580414848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115715"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting results, 18 saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while 10 saw improvements of more than 25%. Our Results Sore tumbled 22bps to 0.77, the second-lowest Score in three years while the Forecast/Revision Score lost almost all of yesterday's gain and is 9bps away from a three-year low.</p>

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting results, 18 saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while 10 saw improvements of more than 25%. Our Results Sore tumbled 22bps to 0.77, the second-lowest Score in three years while the Forecast/Revision Score lost almost all of yesterday's gain and is 9bps away from a three-year low.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/452/original/2019-11-17_11-54-09.png?1573959284" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106452"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO</strong> - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the market and, to loosely paraphrase the under-rated Jesse Winchester's second album title, this is the fourth straight 'down' quarter with the prospect a few more to come. Operating Income has declined by 7.8% and Net Income by 18.8%, taking margins to 6.9% and 4.6%, respectively - declines of 84bps and 122bps. The market has celebrated these new two-year lows by rising to new two-year highs, leaving some to wonder what they are missing, other than yet more central bank liquidity. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings ratio is now 17 times, the highest since 5th February 2018, ten trading days after the long-term market peak.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/458/original/2019-11-17_12-49-55.png?1573962614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106458"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/459/original/2019-11-17_13-10-47.png?1573963867" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106459"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE EARNINGS CYCLE HAS YET TO BOTTOM</strong> -  Our Results &amp; Forecast/Revision Score data series cover the last sixteen years of quarterly earnings and eleven years of forecasts and revisions and measure both results and forecasts but also their momentum, providing a better correlation with the market direction than past earnings.   The Forecast/Revision Score leads the Results Score by several months, and the market leads or lags depending on monetary and liquidity conditions. Although both Scores recovered in the last five days of results announcements, the Forecast/Revision Score of 0.45 reached on 8th November is the lowest such score in ten years and is suggesting that earnings have yet to bottom.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>WISHFUL THINKING? - The 'gap' between market expectations and actual and forecast earnings momentum is now wider than at any time since late 2014, shortly before the market peak of May 2015. Is this foresight or just wishful thinking? We tend to the latter interpretation.</strong></p></div><p><strong>In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a full breakdown of the results and revisions announcements by Sector, Peer Group and company and offer brief comments on several recommended buys and sells.</strong></p>

Source: Japan Analytics4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the market and, to loosely paraphrase the under-rated Jesse Winchester's second album title, this is the fourth straight 'down' quarter with the prospect a few more to come. Operating Income has declined by 7.8% and Net Income by 18.8%, taking margins to 6.9% and 4.6%, respectively - declines of 84bps and 122bps. The market has celebrated these new two-year lows by rising to new two-year highs, leaving some to wonder what they are missing, other than yet more central bank liquidity. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings ratio is now 17 times, the highest since 5th February 2018, ten trading days after the long-term market peak.Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE EARNINGS CYCLE HAS YET TO BOTTOM -  Our Results &amp; Forecast/Revision Score data series cover the last sixteen years of quarterly earnings and eleven years of forecasts and revisions and measure both results and forecasts but also their momentum, providing a better correlation with the market direction than past earnings.   The Forecast/Revision Score leads the Results Score by several months, and the market leads or lags depending on monetary and liquidity conditions. Although both Scores recovered in the last five days of results announcements, the Forecast/Revision Score of 0.45 reached on 8th November is the lowest such score in ten years and is suggesting that earnings have yet to bottom.WISHFUL THINKING? - The 'gap' between market expectations and actual and forecast earnings momentum is now wider than at any time since late 2014, shortly before the market peak of May 2015. Is this foresight or just wishful thinking? We tend to the latter interpretation.In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a full breakdown of the results and revisions announcements by Sector, Peer Group and company and offer brief comments on several recommended buys and sells.

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/205/original/2019-11-03_13-09-55.png?1572754223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104205"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FIRST WAVE</strong> - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/206/original/2019-11-03_13-33-51.png?1572755646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104206"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/207/original/2019-11-03_13-44-57.png?1572756308" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>CALLING A BOTTOM?</strong> - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.</p><p><strong>Among the stocks mentioned below are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autobacs-seven-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2142:1" rel="noopener">Autobacs Seven (9832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-capital-partners-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10401:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP)</a>. </strong></p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsFIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. 
Source: Japan Analytics
CALLING A BOTTOM? - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.Among the stocks mentioned below are Autobacs Seven (9832 JP), Nomura Holdings (8604 JP), Monex (8698 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Fujitsu (6702 JP), Toshiba Tec (6588 JP), and M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP). 

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.</p>

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Japan

M&A Capital Partners Co., Ltd. is an M&A advisory firm. The Company provides advisory service in M&A due diligence, business strategy, corporate regeneration, capital increase strategy to support owners of small and medium companies with business succession.

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M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th July - Anritsu, ZOZO, M&As, O-Land, MELCO, Advantest

NEW LOWS - As more quarterly results & forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom

FIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In...

Campbell Gunn

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

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