'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 31st July - Takeda, Yamato/SG, Seria, FP, Keyence, Dai-Ichi Sankyo

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 3rd August - Capcom, K's, Kikkoman, USS, Eisai

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

The Zozo Revival: A New Private Brand of Many Names, Category Expansion, Merchants Return

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/206/original/2020-07-31_06-20-27.png?1596144054" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>NEW LOWS</strong> - As more quarterly results &amp; forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday. We expect at least half of the gap to the 2009 lows to be closed by the end of August. The market continues to rest in the comfort of the central banks' 'cotton wool'. Our picks of the best and worst results of the day are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu (6754 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, respectively. There was also an interesting divergence between the two 'M&amp;A' specialists, as we reveal in the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/208/original/2020-07-31_06-31-18.png?1596144693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149208"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/209/original/2020-07-31_06-30-54.png?1596144708" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149209"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics<hr>
</div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>189 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 56 Positive / 8 Neutral / 125 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.8</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.2% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.2ppt <em>(ex AnGes)</em>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 29%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>75 Annual • 43 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 21 Positive / 3 Neutral / 51 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 9 Positive / 0 Neutral / 34 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.0</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsNEW LOWS - As more quarterly results &amp; forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday. We expect at least half of the gap to the 2009 lows to be closed by the end of August. The market continues to rest in the comfort of the central banks' 'cotton wool'. Our picks of the best and worst results of the day are Anritsu (6754 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP), respectively. There was also an interesting divergence between the two 'M&amp;A' specialists, as we reveal in the DETAIL below.Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS189 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 56 Positive / 8 Neutral / 125 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.8

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.2% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt (ex AnGes)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%
 75 Annual • 43 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 21 Positive / 3 Neutral / 51 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 9 Positive / 0 Neutral / 34 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.0


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th July - Anritsu, ZOZO, M&As, O-Land, MELCO, Advantest