Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Without a doubt, Nihon M&amp;A Center offers a lot of qualities that we like;</li>
<li>However, the valuation should discourage many alpha-seeking investors, including us;</li>
<li>The high price multiple resonates with the low-total-return estimate based on our DCF analysis.</li>
</ul>


Without a doubt, Nihon M&amp;A Center offers a lot of qualities that we like;
However, the valuation should discourage many alpha-seeking investors, including us;
The high price multiple resonates with the low-total-return estimate based on our DCF analysis.


Nihon M&A Center: Superior Quality But Hefty Valuation

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Frontier Management Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frontier-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29135:1" rel="noopener">Frontier Management Inc (7038 JP)</a>  (FM) has seen its stock rise 330% over the past year, far outpacing rivals in investment banking and consulting services. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></div><div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">While the Corona virus </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">impacted</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> FM’s ability to close cross-border M&amp;A deals in 1H20, the management consulting and business revitalization work grew solidly. The group’s more aggressive headcount additions suggest confidence in the 2H pipeline and longer-term outlook. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></div><div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Demographic and economic shifts in Japan are propelling demand for business strategy and M&amp;A consulting in Japan. Moreover, with the introduction of the corporate governance and stewardship codes, Japanese companies are facing scrutiny to improve financial returns, improve profitability and maximize shareholder returns. These trends are likely to remain a tailwind for Frontier’s core services. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></div>

Frontier Management Inc (7038 JP)  (FM) has seen its stock rise 330% over the past year, far outpacing rivals in investment banking and consulting services.  While the Corona virus impacted FM’s ability to close cross-border M&amp;A deals in 1H20, the management consulting and business revitalization work grew solidly. The group’s more aggressive headcount additions suggest confidence in the 2H pipeline and longer-term outlook.  Demographic and economic shifts in Japan are propelling demand for business strategy and M&amp;A consulting in Japan. Moreover, with the introduction of the corporate governance and stewardship codes, Japanese companies are facing scrutiny to improve financial returns, improve profitability and maximize shareholder returns. These trends are likely to remain a tailwind for Frontier’s core services.  

Small Cap Growth: Frontier Management (7038) - Borderless Services

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One of our previous articles briefly touched upon the M&amp;A market for Japanese SMEs;</li>
<li>Given the promising prospect of the space, we would like to explore and compare the top three players;</li>
<li>Our evaluation is conducted from both business fundamentals and share valuation perspectives.</li>
</ul>


One of our previous articles briefly touched upon the M&amp;A market for Japanese SMEs;
Given the promising prospect of the space, we would like to explore and compare the top three players;
Our evaluation is conducted from both business fundamentals and share valuation perspectives.


A Deeper Look into Japan's SME M&A Advisory Boutiques

<ul>
<li>The Japanese SME segment is filled with its unique structural challenges, which provides opportunities for "pick and shovel" suppliers;</li>
<li>Many of these SME backers (including oRo, which we covered previously) have generated tremendous shareholder value in the past and may continue to do so while addressing clients' key pain points alongside multiple long-term tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese SME segment is filled with its unique structural challenges, which provides opportunities for "pick and shovel" suppliers;
Many of these SME backers (including oRo, which we covered previously) have generated tremendous shareholder value in the past and may continue to do so while addressing clients' key pain points alongside multiple long-term tailwinds.


'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/206/original/2020-07-31_06-20-27.png?1596144054" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>NEW LOWS</strong> - As more quarterly results &amp; forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday. We expect at least half of the gap to the 2009 lows to be closed by the end of August. The market continues to rest in the comfort of the central banks' 'cotton wool'. Our picks of the best and worst results of the day are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu (6754 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, respectively. There was also an interesting divergence between the two 'M&amp;A' specialists, as we reveal in the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/208/original/2020-07-31_06-31-18.png?1596144693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149208"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/209/original/2020-07-31_06-30-54.png?1596144708" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149209"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics<hr>
</div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>189 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 56 Positive / 8 Neutral / 125 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.8</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.2% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.2ppt <em>(ex AnGes)</em>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 29%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>75 Annual • 43 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 21 Positive / 3 Neutral / 51 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 9 Positive / 0 Neutral / 34 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.0</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsNEW LOWS - As more quarterly results &amp; forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday. We expect at least half of the gap to the 2009 lows to be closed by the end of August. The market continues to rest in the comfort of the central banks' 'cotton wool'. Our picks of the best and worst results of the day are Anritsu (6754 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP), respectively. There was also an interesting divergence between the two 'M&amp;A' specialists, as we reveal in the DETAIL below.Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS189 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 56 Positive / 8 Neutral / 125 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.8

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.2% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt (ex AnGes)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%
 75 Annual • 43 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 21 Positive / 3 Neutral / 51 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 9 Positive / 0 Neutral / 34 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.0


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th July - Anritsu, ZOZO, M&As, O-Land, MELCO, Advantest

Japan

M&A Capital Partners Co., Ltd. is an M&A advisory firm. The Company provides advisory service in M&A due diligence, business strategy, corporate regeneration, capital increase strategy to support owners of small and medium companies with business succession.

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M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP)

Nihon M&A Center: Superior Quality But Hefty Valuation

The high price multiple resonates with the low-total-return projection based on our DCF analysis and should discourage many alpha-seeking investors.

Steven Chen

Small Cap Growth: Frontier Management (7038) - Borderless Services

Frontier Management (FM) has seen its stock rise 330% over the past year, far outpacing peers in investment banking and consulting...

Mark Chadwick

A Deeper Look into Japan's SME M&A Advisory Boutiques

It is not difficult to understand the promising prospect of the space, driven by a combination of multiple structural shifts in the country: e.g.,...

Steven Chen

Top Picks: Two More Japanese SME Backers

The Japanese SME segment is filled with its unique structural challenges, which provides opportunities for "pick and shovel" suppliers.

Steven Chen

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th July - Anritsu, ZOZO, M&As, O-Land, MELCO, Advantest

NEW LOWS - As more quarterly results & forecasts come out, both our Results and Forecast/Revisions Scores reached new ten-year lows yesterday....

Campbell Gunn

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