Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> reported its 1QFY03/2022 results on Thursday (12th August 2021) which saw revenues growing 39.8% YoY while operating profit for the quarter almost quadrupled to JPY104.7bn. The adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter grew 135.4% YoY to JPY125.7bn vs JPY53.4bn in the same quarter a year ago.Recruit’s 1QFY03/2022 revenues beat consensus estimates by 15.5% while reported operating profit for the quarter beat consensus by a huge margin of 74.8%. Both HR Tech and Staffing segments have recovered to pre-Covid levels, however, Media &amp; Solutions segment has not yet been able to recover from the pandemic despite showing YoY increase in revenues.The company has revised its guidance for full-year FY03/2022 upwards (from its previous guidance in May 2021) in order to reflect the updated outlook for HR Tech and Staffing businesses.

Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported its 1QFY03/2022 results on Thursday (12th August 2021) which saw revenues growing 39.8% YoY while operating profit for the quarter almost quadrupled to JPY104.7bn. The adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter grew 135.4% YoY to JPY125.7bn vs JPY53.4bn in the same quarter a year ago.Recruit’s 1QFY03/2022 revenues beat consensus estimates by 15.5% while reported operating profit for the quarter beat consensus by a huge margin of 74.8%. Both HR Tech and Staffing segments have recovered to pre-Covid levels, however, Media &amp; Solutions segment has not yet been able to recover from the pandemic despite showing YoY increase in revenues.The company has revised its guidance for full-year FY03/2022 upwards (from its previous guidance in May 2021) in order to reflect the updated outlook for HR Tech and Staffing businesses.

Recruit: Strong Performance of HR Tech Drives Earnings Beat; Shares Are Overvalued

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Rakuten Q2 21 results were mixed with better revenue as core businesses did well but steeper losses as mobile spending grew. The company has not changed broad guidance that peak losses will come in FY21 but roaming costs appear to be a larger issue than we thought with an impact on both margins and the timing of new user acquisition. That makes slippage in network deployment targets slightly more problematic although there should also be some offset from good results in eCommerce which grew YoY despite lapping the very strong lockdown quarter.

Rakuten Q2 21 results were mixed with better revenue as core businesses did well but steeper losses as mobile spending grew. The company has not changed broad guidance that peak losses will come in FY21 but roaming costs appear to be a larger issue than we thought with an impact on both margins and the timing of new user acquisition. That makes slippage in network deployment targets slightly more problematic although there should also be some offset from good results in eCommerce which grew YoY despite lapping the very strong lockdown quarter.

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q2 21 Results Reaction: Roaming Costs Have Become a Big Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.<ol>
<li>In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. </li>
</ol>I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.
In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. 
This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and 
This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. 
I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

There are a lot of moving parts as the first full quarter of LINE integration and unique comps from last year distort comparisons. For the record, headline revenue grew 36% with corresponding EBITDA growth of 11% but the standout number for us is 20% growth in pro forma advertising revenue driven by both old (search +22%) and new (LINE +34%) businesses. And that is before a serious effort on synergies has been made. There are ups and downs in the rest of the business as eCommerce results were mixed whilst PayPay (unconsolidated but central to management plans) continues to trend favorably. Z Holdings had a good report and we remain at Buy.

There are a lot of moving parts as the first full quarter of LINE integration and unique comps from last year distort comparisons. For the record, headline revenue grew 36% with corresponding EBITDA growth of 11% but the standout number for us is 20% growth in pro forma advertising revenue driven by both old (search +22%) and new (LINE +34%) businesses. And that is before a serious effort on synergies has been made. There are ups and downs in the rest of the business as eCommerce results were mixed whilst PayPay (unconsolidated but central to management plans) continues to trend favorably. Z Holdings had a good report and we remain at Buy.  

Z Holdings (Buy) Q1 21 Results Reaction: Ad Revenue Growth Stands Out

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Recruit: Strong Performance of HR Tech Drives Earnings Beat; Shares Are Overvalued

Recruit's 1QFY03/2022 revenues grew 39.8% YoY while operating profit almost quadrupled to JPY104.7bn. Both HR Tech and Staffing have recovered but...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q2 21 Results Reaction: Roaming Costs Have Become a Big Deal

Rakuten posted solid eCommerce/Fintech results but these are overshadowed by mobile operating losses. The good news is peak losses should fall in...

Kirk Boodry

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

NTT Announces good earnings and a big buyback. Buybacks are normal but this buyback is the new normal, delivering NTT Docomo's earnings to NTT...

Travis Lundy

Z Holdings (Buy) Q1 21 Results Reaction: Ad Revenue Growth Stands Out

There are a lot of moving parts as the first full quarter of LINE integration and unique comps from last year distort comparisons but the standout...

Kirk Boodry

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Japan's population is contracting but there are areas of growth, particularly the solo market (single people living alone) and the senior market....

Michael Causton

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