Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Fashion retailer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-base-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23991:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Base (3415 JP)</a>, stumbled well before the pandemic due to teething issues but  managed to hold sales at almost 2019 levels last year despite its premium positioning. It now expects almost 30% growth this year. Encouraged, it will double down on expansion, adding two more chains, including a sports fashion store, while investing faster overseas – where the real long-term potential lies.

Fashion retailer, Tokyo Base (3415 JP), stumbled well before the pandemic due to teething issues but  managed to hold sales at almost 2019 levels last year despite its premium positioning. It now expects almost 30% growth this year. Encouraged, it will double down on expansion, adding two more chains, including a sports fashion store, while investing faster overseas – where the real long-term potential lies.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Lululemon Athletica / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Lululemon Athletica delivered a robust performance in the second quarter, with revenue growing over 60% compared to the previous year.</li><li>It managed to deliver a positive growth in e-commerce, which is even more impressive given the strong performance one year ago.</li><li>Lululemon saw the revenues increase 43% in their international markets and up 26% in North America, both on a two-year CAGR basis indicating a strong global momentum.</li></ul>

Lululemon Athletica delivered a robust performance in the second quarter, with revenue growing over 60% compared to the previous year.It managed to deliver a positive growth in e-commerce, which is even more impressive given the strong performance one year ago.Lululemon saw the revenues increase 43% in their international markets and up 26% in North America, both on a two-year CAGR basis indicating a strong global momentum.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. - Investment Thesis

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.
What is original about this report? Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.

 In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.
What is original about this report? Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

We have chosen to use EV/EBIT to value BrandX Corp mainly because this negates the differences in the capital structure of the different companies. Echo Marketing is currently trading at 14.7x EV/EBIT using 2020 EBIT estimates. We have applied a 20% premium valuation multiple on BrandX Corp (17.6x EV/EBIT 2020E), mainly due to much higher sales growth and returns on equity as compared to Echo Marketing.Applying a 17.6x EV/EBIT multiple to our estimated EBIT of 18.5 billion won in 2020 results in an EV of 327 billion won and an implied market cap of 363 billion won. This results in an implied price of 17,912 won, which is 29% above the mid-point of the IPO range (12,400 won to 15,300 won). Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of this IPO and we would take this deal. As we mentioned in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brandx-corporation-ipo-preview" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41084" rel="noopener">BrandX Corporation IPO Preview</a>,  a key risk that the company faces is whether it can become more than a "one-hit-wonder." The company's most successful brand Xexymix has been the major driver of its sales and profits in the past two years and for now, it is uncertain whether it can continue its success in other products such as cosmetics, men's apparel, and HMR F&amp;B product categories.

We have chosen to use EV/EBIT to value BrandX Corp mainly because this negates the differences in the capital structure of the different companies. Echo Marketing is currently trading at 14.7x EV/EBIT using 2020 EBIT estimates. We have applied a 20% premium valuation multiple on BrandX Corp (17.6x EV/EBIT 2020E), mainly due to much higher sales growth and returns on equity as compared to Echo Marketing.Applying a 17.6x EV/EBIT multiple to our estimated EBIT of 18.5 billion won in 2020 results in an EV of 327 billion won and an implied market cap of 363 billion won. This results in an implied price of 17,912 won, which is 29% above the mid-point of the IPO range (12,400 won to 15,300 won). Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of this IPO and we would take this deal. As we mentioned in our previous note, BrandX Corporation IPO Preview,  a key risk that the company faces is whether it can become more than a "one-hit-wonder." The company's most successful brand Xexymix has been the major driver of its sales and profits in the past two years and for now, it is uncertain whether it can continue its success in other products such as cosmetics, men's apparel, and HMR F&amp;B product categories. 

BrandX Corporation IPO Valuation Analysis

United States

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

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Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)

Tokyo Base Defies Fashion Slowdown

Tokyo Base is a rare jewel: a Japanese retailer designed from the ground up for export markets. It is now solidifying its position at home and has...

Michael Causton

Lululemon Athletica Inc. - Investment Thesis

Lululemon Athletica delivered a robust performance in the second quarter, with revenue growing over 60% compared to the previous year. It managed...

Baptista Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

Insights for investors based on comparative study of Asia D2C landscape across India, SE Asia & China.Analysis of relative segment attractiveness....

Devi Subhakesan

BrandX Corporation IPO Valuation Analysis

We have chosen to use EV/EBIT to value BrandX Corp mainly because this negates the differences in the capital structure of the different companies....

Douglas Kim

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