HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.</li>
<li>Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.</li>
</ul>


With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.
Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).</li>
<li>The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   </li>
</ul>



Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).
The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   


HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

Equity Capital Markets

Qyuns Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.</li>
<li>Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.</li>
<li>Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.</li>
</ul>


The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.
Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.
Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.


Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back in late 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livzon-pharmaceutical-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18726:1" rel="noopener">Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (1513 HK)</a> proposed spinning off 39.4%-held Livzon Diagnostics on Chinext. After numerous filings with the regulators ... crickets.  </li>
<li>Livzon has now proposed listing Livzon Diagnostics on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations with an intention of transitioning listed shares to the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE).</li>
<li>The CSRC recently introduced a raft of initiatives to spur investor interest in the BSE. After all-but-abandoning the prior listing, Livzon looks to be cashing in on this recent excitement. </li>
</ul>


Back in late 2020, Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (1513 HK) proposed spinning off 39.4%-held Livzon Diagnostics on Chinext. After numerous filings with the regulators ... crickets.  
Livzon has now proposed listing Livzon Diagnostics on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations with an intention of transitioning listed shares to the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE).
The CSRC recently introduced a raft of initiatives to spur investor interest in the BSE. After all-but-abandoning the prior listing, Livzon looks to be cashing in on this recent excitement. 


<ul>
<li>The results of the first VBP of TCM formula granules in China were announced. 200 varieties of TCM formula granules have been included, with an average price reduction of 50.77%.</li>
<li>According to the recently released Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care in 2022, we have listed some key points worth investors' attention.</li>
<li>Livzon’s 23Q3 performance was below expectations, which was more related to external factors such as anti-corruption campaign, VBP. However, Chairman's share buyback proposal indicates possibility of a future reversal.</li>
</ul>


The results of the first VBP of TCM formula granules in China were announced. 200 varieties of TCM formula granules have been included, with an average price reduction of 50.77%.
According to the recently released Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care in 2022, we have listed some key points worth investors' attention.
Livzon’s 23Q3 performance was below expectations, which was more related to external factors such as anti-corruption campaign, VBP. However, Chairman's share buyback proposal indicates possibility of a future reversal.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Medical Statistics to Watch, Livzon

China

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products, including chemical medicines, bio-chemical medicines, biological engineering medicines, chemical compound crude medicines, antibiotics, micro-ecological preparations, patent Chinese medicines, and diagnosis reagents etc.

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Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (1513 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Qyuns’s pipeline lacks competitiveness, facing fierce competition.Together with bleak internationalization outlook, peak sales have obvious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Livzon Reloads Diagnostic Spin-Off

Livzon is trading below its five year averages for all metrics - both trailing and forward. I'd probably be picking up shares around here. But it...

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Medical Statistics to Watch, Livzon

Results of the first TCM formula granule VBP were announced. Some key points of Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

There is scrip valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, the deal should get...

Arun George

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Qyuns’s pipeline lacks competitiveness, facing fierce competition.Together with bleak internationalization outlook, peak sales have obvious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Livzon Reloads Diagnostic Spin-Off

Livzon is trading below its five year averages for all metrics - both trailing and forward. I'd probably be picking up shares around here. But it...

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Medical Statistics to Watch, Livzon

Results of the first TCM formula granule VBP were announced. Some key points of Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang