Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Roughly six weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> announced the scrip option condition was met. Just that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)</a> (the Offeror) was weighing its options</li>
<li>This situation mirrored <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s (eventual) scrip option. And in place of Pleasant Lake in that transaction; Henlius has Loyal Valley Capital (5.8309% shareholder) behind the scenes.</li>
<li>Late Friday, Henlius updated the terms of Fosun's Offer to now include the scrip option alternative. We expected nothing less. 1H24 results will also be out later today. </li>
</ul>


Roughly six weeks ago, Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced the scrip option condition was met. Just that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) (the Offeror) was weighing its options
This situation mirrored L'Occitane (973 HK)'s (eventual) scrip option. And in place of Pleasant Lake in that transaction; Henlius has Loyal Valley Capital (5.8309% shareholder) behind the scenes.
Late Friday, Henlius updated the terms of Fosun's Offer to now include the scrip option alternative. We expected nothing less. 1H24 results will also be out later today. 


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market showed defensiveness during early August selloff and the overall breadth of the market continues to improve.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> received upgrades after reporting strong 2Q24 results.  Its SEA and China business showed growth in revenue and profitability.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> received an upgrade after revenue and EBITDA approached pre-COVID levels.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-hon-teng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22868:1" rel="noopener">FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)</a> is seeing improvement in AI server, AirPod, and EV segments.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market showed defensiveness during early August selloff and the overall breadth of the market continues to improve.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) received upgrades after reporting strong 2Q24 results.  Its SEA and China business showed growth in revenue and profitability.

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) received an upgrade after revenue and EBITDA approached pre-COVID levels.  FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK) is seeing improvement in AI server, AirPod, and EV segments.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weimob-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27394:1" rel="noopener">Weimob Inc. (2013 HK)</a> is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.</li>
</ul>


There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.

Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Hong Kong

Linklogis Inc operates as a technology solution provider. The company develops cloud native solutions and supply chain finance technology solutions which optimize the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Linklogis (9959 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): Was There Any Doubt?

The scrip option is here. Currently trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.4%/16.2%, assuming mid-February payment. I'd get involved here. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

The Hong Kong market breadth continues to improve as the market has shown defensive qualities during recent selloff. J&T Global, Galaxy and FIT...

David Mudd

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

There are 3 changes for the HSIII in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn...

Brian Freitas

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

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