Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ACCC is seeking views on whether Dye &amp; Durham’s proposed sale of GlobalX and the Australian operations of SAI Global, is sufficient to approve <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a></strong>'s takeover.</li>
<li>Separately, the postponed Scheme meeting will be held on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02549152-2A1388559?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">22 August</a>.  The Independent Expert continues to conclude that the Revised Scheme is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The proposed date for the announcement of ACCC’s findings is the 8th September, one day prior to the Second Court Date.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC is seeking views on whether Dye &amp; Durham’s proposed sale of GlobalX and the Australian operations of SAI Global, is sufficient to approve Link Administration (LNK AU)'s takeover.
Separately, the postponed Scheme meeting will be held on the 22 August.  The Independent Expert continues to conclude that the Revised Scheme is fair and reasonable.
The proposed date for the announcement of ACCC’s findings is the 8th September, one day prior to the Second Court Date.


Link Admin: Dye & Durham Offers To Sell Aussie Ops To Appease ACCC

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> scheme meeting is scheduled for 22 August. The independent expert has concluded that the revised Dye &amp; Durham/DND offer is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. The key hurdles are the ACCC approval, ongoing FCA investigation and regulatory approval for certain DND shareholders.</li>
<li>At the last close, the gross and annualised spread to a 27 September payment is 9.3% and 79.1%, respectively. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst.</li>
</ul>


The Link Administration (LNK AU) scheme meeting is scheduled for 22 August. The independent expert has concluded that the revised Dye &amp; Durham/DND offer is fair and reasonable.
There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. The key hurdles are the ACCC approval, ongoing FCA investigation and regulatory approval for certain DND shareholders.
At the last close, the gross and annualised spread to a 27 September payment is 9.3% and 79.1%, respectively. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst.


Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>The highest spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, Link Admin. </li>
<li>Lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excelpoint-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1774:1" rel="noopener">Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mydeal-com-au-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30939:1" rel="noopener">MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocoaland-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:493:1" rel="noopener">Cocoaland Holdings (COLA MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
The highest spreads are 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Link Admin. 
Lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), Giordano International (709 HK), MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU), Cocoaland Holdings (COLA MK), MACA Ltd (MLD AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (01 Aug) - Genex, Yashili, Link Admin, VNET, Ramsay, Alliance Aviation

<ul>
<li>For the month of July, only 4 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in July was ~42%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of July, only 4 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in July was ~42%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopping-centres-australasia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20100:1" rel="noopener">Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sayona-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Sayona Mining (SYA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-social-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8288:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.</li>
</ul>


At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU), Sayona Mining (SYA AU), Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU).
Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Link Administration (LNK AU)

Link Admin: Dye & Durham Offers To Sell Aussie Ops To Appease ACCC

Assuming late September payment, this is trading at gross/annualised spread of 7.1%/61%. If you are in, stay in. Or get involved around these levels.

David Blennerhassett

Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst. At the last close,...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Aug) - Genex, Yashili, Link Admin, VNET, Ramsay, Alliance Aviation

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (55.0%), Alliance Aviation (47.5%), ResApp (27.0%), Ramsay (24.7%), Yashili (10.1%), Link Admin...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A: July 2022 Roundup

For the month of July, only 4 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn. The average premium for...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

There are no changes expected for the ASX20 & ASX50, maybe a couple for the ASX100, more for the ASX200 and many more for the ASX300 index at the...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Link Admin: Dye & Durham Offers To Sell Aussie Ops To Appease ACCC

Assuming late September payment, this is trading at gross/annualised spread of 7.1%/61%. If you are in, stay in. Or get involved around these levels.

David Blennerhassett

Link’s New Scheme Meeting on 22 August but Deal Break Risks Remain

There are several conditions precedents which could yet derail the deal. Ongoing satisfaction of conditions is the key catalyst. At the last close,...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Aug) - Genex, Yashili, Link Admin, VNET, Ramsay, Alliance Aviation

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (55.0%), Alliance Aviation (47.5%), ResApp (27.0%), Ramsay (24.7%), Yashili (10.1%), Link Admin...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A: July 2022 Roundup

For the month of July, only 4 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$1bn. The average premium for...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

There are no changes expected for the ASX20 & ASX50, maybe a couple for the ASX100, more for the ASX200 and many more for the ASX300 index at the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected