China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Auto supply chain issue, including chip shortage, might be worse in 2022E. Local brands might keep gaining market share due to their higher localisation rates</li>
<li>NEV models would continue gaining market shares as they are affected less by chip shortage and more cost friendly when global fuel cost surges</li>
<li>Among three listed EV players, Xpeng (XPEV.US, 9868.HK) has the biggest upside on sales/earnings growth, while NIO(NIO.US) has the biggest uncertainty. </li>
</ul>


Auto supply chain issue, including chip shortage, might be worse in 2022E. Local brands might keep gaining market share due to their higher localisation rates
NEV models would continue gaining market shares as they are affected less by chip shortage and more cost friendly when global fuel cost surges
Among three listed EV players, Xpeng (XPEV.US, 9868.HK) has the biggest upside on sales/earnings growth, while NIO(NIO.US) has the biggest uncertainty. 


As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And EV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng (XPEV.US; 9868.HK) reported millimetre radar supply shortage at end October. And, with China's local Covid new cases increasing, auto sector's supply chain might get tightened further in short term.However, according to customers' reaction to optional delivery plans offered by Xpeng and Li Auto for customers whose new car delivery would be affected in Nov, we estimate negative impact on Xpeng would be limit. And Xpeng's new car delivery would continue increase MoM in the rest of this year.In October, Xpeng delivered 10,138 new cars, compared to Li Auto's 7,649 cars and NIO's (NIO.US) 3,667 cars.BUY Xpeng.

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And EV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng (XPEV.US; 9868.HK) reported millimetre radar supply shortage at end October. And, with China's local Covid new cases increasing, auto sector's supply chain might get tightened further in short term.However, according to customers' reaction to optional delivery plans offered by Xpeng and Li Auto for customers whose new car delivery would be affected in Nov, we estimate negative impact on Xpeng would be limit. And Xpeng's new car delivery would continue increase MoM in the rest of this year.In October, Xpeng delivered 10,138 new cars, compared to Li Auto's 7,649 cars and NIO's (NIO.US) 3,667 cars.BUY Xpeng.

China Auto: Outstanding Xpeng in Dark Moment

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/CATL-goes-all-in-on-next-gen-sodium-ion-EV-batteries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CATL continues to invest heavily in material diversification</a>. We warned as far back as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-common-concern-is-there-enough-lithium-to-support-the-expected-growth-in-evs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three and a half years ago</a> that investors were too complacent about lithium supply and as we head towards the middle of this decade with the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely, CATL appears to be hedging its bets.

CATL continues to invest heavily in material diversification. We warned as far back as three and a half years ago that investors were too complacent about lithium supply and as we head towards the middle of this decade with the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely, CATL appears to be hedging its bets.

CATL – Sodium-Ion Battery Development Highlights the Issues with Lithium

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> local deliveries in China plunged to lowest since April 2020. So Tesla punted record exports to Europe and elsewhere where they also didn't sell.Such disappointing China sales are a troubling signal that July started off what could be a softer than expected third quarter.

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) local deliveries in China plunged to lowest since April 2020. So Tesla punted record exports to Europe and elsewhere where they also didn't sell.Such disappointing China sales are a troubling signal that July started off what could be a softer than expected third quarter.

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

China Auto Sector Outlook 2022E

Auto supply chain issue, including chip shortage, might be worse in 2022E. Local brands might keep gaining market share due to their higher...

Victoria Li

China Auto: Outstanding Xpeng in Dark Moment

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And NEV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng...

Victoria Li

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

CATL – Sodium-Ion Battery Development Highlights the Issues with Lithium

As we head towards the middle of this decade the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely and...

Mio Kato

Tesla China Sales Deflated in July

Local deliveries in China plunged to the lowest since April 2020. Europe looks little better, as I expected. This may be the start of what turns...

Vicki Bryan

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