Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div>The Chinese short-video and livestreaming platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>  reported its 1Q2021 results today (24th May). Kuaishou’s revenues for the quarter grew 36.6% YoY driven by strong growth in revenue from Online Marketing services which helped offset YoY drop in revenue from Live Streaming. Kuaishou’s revenue for the quarter declined 6.0% on a quarter-over-quarter basis due to huge drop in live streaming revenues which declined 8.2% QoQ during 1Q21.</div><div></div><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/208/522/original/image_63846562621621867858258.png?1621867860" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="208522"></figure></div><div>Kuaishou’s gross profit margin for the quarter improved to 41.1% compared to 34.2% a year ago benefitting from a favourable revenue mix. On the other hand, operating losses for the quarter increased to 42.8% of revenues from 40.3% in the same quarter a year ago.</div>

The Chinese short-video and livestreaming platform Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)  reported its 1Q2021 results today (24th May). Kuaishou’s revenues for the quarter grew 36.6% YoY driven by strong growth in revenue from Online Marketing services which helped offset YoY drop in revenue from Live Streaming. Kuaishou’s revenue for the quarter declined 6.0% on a quarter-over-quarter basis due to huge drop in live streaming revenues which declined 8.2% QoQ during 1Q21.Kuaishou’s gross profit margin for the quarter improved to 41.1% compared to 34.2% a year ago benefitting from a favourable revenue mix. On the other hand, operating losses for the quarter increased to 42.8% of revenues from 40.3% in the same quarter a year ago.

Kuaishou: Online Ad Drives Top Line Growth; Margins to Remain Under Pressure with Overseas Expansion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 30.</p><p>The inclusions are Autohome (2518 HK) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp H (763 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-hon-teng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22868:1" rel="noopener">Fit Hon Teng (6088 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archosaur-games" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28948:1" rel="noopener">Archosaur Games (9990 HK)</a>.</p><p>The inclusion of Autohome (2518 HK) is a surprise and so is the corresponding deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-hon-teng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22868:1" rel="noopener">Fit Hon Teng (6088 HK)</a>. With a large impact on both names, these are the ones to watch for. </p><p>One-way turnover is estimated at 5.61% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.41bn.</p><p>There are 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. The largest passive flows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> while there will be outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp H (763 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 30.The inclusions are Autohome (2518 HK) and Bilibili Inc (9626 HK) while the deletions are ZTE Corp H (763 HK), Fit Hon Teng (6088 HK) and Archosaur Games (9990 HK).The inclusion of Autohome (2518 HK) is a surprise and so is the corresponding deletion of Fit Hon Teng (6088 HK). With a large impact on both names, these are the ones to watch for. One-way turnover is estimated at 5.61% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.41bn.There are 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. The largest passive flows will go to Bilibili Inc (9626 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) while there will be outflows from Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), ZTE Corp H (763 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK).

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Back to 30 with 2 Adds and 3 Deletes

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12109:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Investment (270 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hscei-june-2021-index-rebalance-preview-three-adds-four-deletes-possible" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a>.</p><p>One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a>.</p><p>There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> was widely expected to be included but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, the stock could outperform till implementation date. </p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are BYD (1211 HK) and Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), while Guangdong Investment (270 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) and China Tower (788 HK) have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our forecast.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and China Tower (788 HK).There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). BYD (1211 HK) was widely expected to be included but Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), the stock could outperform till implementation date. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> April ADT (Average Daily Turnover) re-accelerated from March metrics, delivering amazing 55% year-over-year growth in the month. The outperformance is helped by the rebound of global equity markets and easy comparable from last year. For first 4 months of year 2021, HKEx ADT has accelerated the year-over-year growth rate to 77%. IPO market remains robust. Total raised fund has reached HK$137 billion in 32 IPO deals. New economy and biotech stocks account 95% of IPO deals.</li>
<li>We maintain our sanguine view on trading activities and IPO pipeline in Hong Kong market in 2021, and believe these are the driver to further lift market activities. HKEx delivered HK$3,840mn profit in 21Q1, up 31% quarter-over-quarter, 70% year-over-year. Total ADT is up 86% year-over-year and reached HK$244 bn. Excluding Southbound Stock Connect, ADT grew 76% year-over-year. Commodity trading volume at LME also rebounded 5% quarter-over-quarter. </li>
<li>We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (excluding Stock Connect Northbound volume) and have TP HKD 550 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. Mr. Nicolas Aguzin will become HKEx new CEO effective next Monday May 24 and will deliver his first public speech as HKEx new CEO at LME Asia2021 Metal Seminar on May 25, 2021.  We expect Mr Aguzin will continue to strengthen HKEx market leading position in China New Economy sector and Stock Connect program.     </li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) April ADT (Average Daily Turnover) re-accelerated from March metrics, delivering amazing 55% year-over-year growth in the month. The outperformance is helped by the rebound of global equity markets and easy comparable from last year. For first 4 months of year 2021, HKEx ADT has accelerated the year-over-year growth rate to 77%. IPO market remains robust. Total raised fund has reached HK$137 billion in 32 IPO deals. New economy and biotech stocks account 95% of IPO deals.
We maintain our sanguine view on trading activities and IPO pipeline in Hong Kong market in 2021, and believe these are the driver to further lift market activities. HKEx delivered HK$3,840mn profit in 21Q1, up 31% quarter-over-quarter, 70% year-over-year. Total ADT is up 86% year-over-year and reached HK$244 bn. Excluding Southbound Stock Connect, ADT grew 76% year-over-year. Commodity trading volume at LME also rebounded 5% quarter-over-quarter. 
We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (excluding Stock Connect Northbound volume) and have TP HKD 550 for HKEX (388 HK). Mr. Nicolas Aguzin will become HKEx new CEO effective next Monday May 24 and will deliver his first public speech as HKEx new CEO at LME Asia2021 Metal Seminar on May 25, 2021.  We expect Mr Aguzin will continue to strengthen HKEx market leading position in China New Economy sector and Stock Connect program.     


HKEx(388.HK): New Economy and Stock Connect to Continue Lift Trading Activities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>, the logistics spin-off of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, will <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0517/2021051700101.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">price</a> its shares between HK$39.36 and HK$43.36 each, raising HK$25.2bn using the half-way price, before over-allotment.</p>
<p>Reportedly the retail proportion was 141x oversubscribed on the opening day.</p>
<p>JD.com's stake will decline to 64.4% (63.5% including the over-allotment) from 71.57% currently.</p>
<p>JD.com's shares are down 35% from its recent high in February as Beijing scrutinises large domestic internet players. That's a significant move - and value at the stub level is emerging.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

JD Logistics (2618 HK), the logistics spin-off of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), will price its shares between HK$39.36 and HK$43.36 each, raising HK$25.2bn using the half-way price, before over-allotment.
Reportedly the retail proportion was 141x oversubscribed on the opening day.
JD.com's stake will decline to 64.4% (63.5% including the over-allotment) from 71.57% currently.
JD.com's shares are down 35% from its recent high in February as Beijing scrutinises large domestic internet players. That's a significant move - and value at the stub level is emerging.
More below the fold.

JD.com's Stub Trading Cheapish Ahead Of Logistics Spin-Off

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

Kuaishou: Online Ad Drives Top Line Growth; Margins to Remain Under Pressure with Overseas Expansion

Kuaishou’s 1Q2021 results reveal that the company’s live streaming business growth is declining after seeing a boost during the pandemic last year.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Back to 30 with 2 Adds and 3 Deletes

There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the HSTECH Index. One-way turnover is estimated at 5.61% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$1.41bn. 2518...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

The 2 adds and 3 deletes for the HSCEI are just what we expected. BYD is an inclusion in the HSI too and could move higher over the next 2 weeks....

Brian Freitas

HKEx(388.HK): New Economy and Stock Connect to Continue Lift Trading Activities

HKEx will continue to strengthen its market leading position in China New Economy sector and Stock Connect program. We forecast Securities ADT of...

Roger Xie

JD.com's Stub Trading Cheapish Ahead Of Logistics Spin-Off

Given its reliance on its parent, I'd prefer to play JD.com; yet a 35% discount to NAV doesn't appear overly stretched, and may further widen amid...

David Blennerhassett

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