IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to raise $2 billion and seek up to a $10 billion valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47885" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look</a>, we opined that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Consequently, BeerCo warrants a closer look. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. </p></div></div></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to raise $2 billion and seek up to a $10 billion valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports.In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look, we opined that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Consequently, BeerCo warrants a closer look. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. 

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

<p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev announced that its has received a no-objection letter from SGX-ST to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. The IPO was delayed from last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The BeerCo IPO could potentially be SGX’s biggest since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-port-holdings-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10512:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP)</a> raised $5.5 billion in 2011.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>BeerCo’s diversified portfolio of brands and products allows it to cater to different segment groups and price points, preserving its strong market share and providing earnings resiliency. Post-COVID-19, the recovery in on-premise consumption should help the eventual return to growth. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s fundamentals.  </p></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev announced that its has received a no-objection letter from SGX-ST to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. The IPO was delayed from last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The BeerCo IPO could potentially be SGX’s biggest since Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP) raised $5.5 billion in 2011.BeerCo’s diversified portfolio of brands and products allows it to cater to different segment groups and price points, preserving its strong market share and providing earnings resiliency. Post-COVID-19, the recovery in on-premise consumption should help the eventual return to growth. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s fundamentals.  

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The coronavirus is rampaging across Japan again, and the Japanese government is considering extending the state of emergency declared in and around the Tokyo area until the end of February. The Suga administration is also considering declaring a state of emergency in other parts of the country that are continuing to see a high number of coronavirus cases.</li>
<li>As a result, holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei stated that Florida requested the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to consider relocating the 2021 Games to Florida, although the IOC denies such claims.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, a <a target="_blank">Gold Partner </a>in the Tokyo Olympics and the sole sponsor in the Beer &amp; Wine category at the Tokyo Olympics, is expected to lose the most compared to Japanese beer companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a> if the Olympics is held behind closed doors or relocated.</li>
</ul>


The coronavirus is rampaging across Japan again, and the Japanese government is considering extending the state of emergency declared in and around the Tokyo area until the end of February. The Suga administration is also considering declaring a state of emergency in other parts of the country that are continuing to see a high number of coronavirus cases.
As a result, holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei stated that Florida requested the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to consider relocating the 2021 Games to Florida, although the IOC denies such claims.

Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), a Gold Partner in the Tokyo Olympics and the sole sponsor in the Beer &amp; Wine category at the Tokyo Olympics, is expected to lose the most compared to Japanese beer companies like Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) and Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) if the Olympics is held behind closed doors or relocated.


Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

<p>Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>announced that the independent assessment of its Myanmar JV partner, Myanmar Economic Holdings (MEHL), failed to produce any results due to the lack of access to a sufficient amount of MEHL’s information. Kirin is expected to provide an action plan to resolve the issues relating to the Myanmar JV in April 2021. We believe the April 2021 action plan could be accompanied by an asset write-down and therefore suggests taking some money off Kirin before the April 2021 announcement.</p>

Last week, Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)announced that the independent assessment of its Myanmar JV partner, Myanmar Economic Holdings (MEHL), failed to produce any results due to the lack of access to a sufficient amount of MEHL’s information. Kirin is expected to provide an action plan to resolve the issues relating to the Myanmar JV in April 2021. We believe the April 2021 action plan could be accompanied by an asset write-down and therefore suggests taking some money off Kirin before the April 2021 announcement.

Kirin: An Asset Write-Down/Disposal Could Be Pending for the Military Linked Myanmar JV

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<div>
<p><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">Corporate governance is hard, </span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">messy</span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none"> and often frustrating for everyone. Those frustrations boiled over for shareholders in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> , with two outspoken activist investors going public with their grievances in May this year, ahead of the AGM. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559740":252}'> </span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">At the AGM, Oasis secured 33% of the votes in </span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">favour</span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none"> of its proposals for cancelling the Company’s treasury shares. If it hadn't been for the Coronavirus, the proposals would have been far more intrusive. In the end, there was a dramatic decrease in support for Fujitec’s CEO, Uchiyama-san. If the low level of support for management was a gentle wake-up call, Oasis’ June statement was a ringing alarm clock</span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">.  </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559740":252}'> </span></p>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote>
<p><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">Oasis will continue its active engagement with the Company and, failing any material change to the situation, will consider a wide variety of options, including calling an EGM later this year, in order to bring about </span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">a <strong>change of leadership</strong></span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none"> at the Company to ensure that progress is made to improve Fujitec’s corporate value for the medium and long-term, to the benefit of all stakeholders</span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none"> (June 2020)</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559740":252}'> </span></p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div>
<p><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559740":252}'> </span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">And so here we are today, with </span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">grudging</span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none"> consent, Uchiyama-san has <a href="https://www.fujitec.com/common/fjhp/doc/top_global/document/irnews/2139/20201204_Fujitec%20Co.,%20Ltd.%20Announces%20Future%20Strategic%20Direction%20Plan.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced a “new” strategic direction</a>. </span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none">It’s</span><span xml:lang="EN-HK" data-contrast="none"> a step in the right direction, but will it be enough to silence the critics? </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559740":252}'> </span></p>
</div>


Corporate governance is hard, messy and often frustrating for everyone. Those frustrations boiled over for shareholders in Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) , with two outspoken activist investors going public with their grievances in May this year, ahead of the AGM.  


At the AGM, Oasis secured 33% of the votes in favour of its proposals for cancelling the Company’s treasury shares. If it hadn't been for the Coronavirus, the proposals would have been far more intrusive. In the end, there was a dramatic decrease in support for Fujitec’s CEO, Uchiyama-san. If the low level of support for management was a gentle wake-up call, Oasis’ June statement was a ringing alarm clock.   



Oasis will continue its active engagement with the Company and, failing any material change to the situation, will consider a wide variety of options, including calling an EGM later this year, in order to bring about a change of leadership at the Company to ensure that progress is made to improve Fujitec’s corporate value for the medium and long-term, to the benefit of all stakeholders (June 2020) 



 And so here we are today, with grudging consent, Uchiyama-san has announced a “new” strategic direction. It’s a step in the right direction, but will it be enough to silence the critics?  


Fujitec (6406) - Governance Is Messy – but that Doesn’t Mean It Isn’t Working

Japan

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

ITO EN, LTD. produces various types of Japanese tea and canned beverages.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

Coca Cola Bottlers Japan produces and sells Coca-Cola, other beverages and foods through subsidiaries. The company also operates logistics, auto vending machine, and other businesses.

TAKARA HOLDINGS INC. produces distilled spirits, sake, soft drinks, and cooking wine.  The Company also sells alcoholic beverages under the brand names, Shouchikubai, Takara Can Chuhai, and Takara Shochu.

HOKKAIDO COCA-COLA BOTTLING CO., LTD. produces soft and cold canned drinks in Hokkaido.

YOMEISHU SEIZO CO., LTD. produces medicinal alcoholic drinks under the Yomeishu brand name.  The Company also produces distilled spirits, rice wine, and base alcohol.

Oenon Holdings, Inc. is a producer of rice wine, liquor and seasoning.  The Company produces mainly sake and shochu.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Molson Coors Brewing Company operates as a brewing company. The Company brews and produces beer. Molson Coors Brewing serves customers worldwide.

Coca-Cola Bottling Company Consolidated operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes nonalcoholic beverages such as energy drinks, bottled water, tea, ready-to-drink coffee, enhanced water, juices, and sports drinks.

Coca Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated (COKE US)

Coca-Cola HBC AG is one of the bottlers in the Coca-Cola system, operating plants in Europe, Africa, and Asia. The Company produces, sells, and distributes a wide range of non-alcoholic beverages, including sparkling, juice, water, sport, energy, tea, and coffee.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JSC Ltd. operates as a wine company. The Company produces and distributes wine, liquor, and other related products.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JS (603369 CH)

Molson Coors Canada Inc. is the principal operating unit of Molson Coors Brewing Company's business operations in Canada.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. produces and markets distilled spirits and wine.

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

ThaiBev aims to raise $2bn and seek up to a $10bn valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look

ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO could raise as much as $2 billion on the SGX, according to press reports. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s...

Arun George

Long Kirin/Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kirin: An Asset Write-Down/Disposal Could Be Pending for the Military Linked Myanmar JV

we wouldn’t be surprised, even if Kirin decides to withdraw from Myanmar operations at a significant loss. Even though it looks more likely that a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Fujitec (6406) - Governance Is Messy – but that Doesn’t Mean It Isn’t Working

Fujitec announced a new strategic plan, trying to fend off further activist encroachment. They addressed operational changes, capital allocation...

Mark Chadwick

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ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

ThaiBev aims to raise $2bn and seek up to a $10bn valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look

ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO could raise as much as $2 billion on the SGX, according to press reports. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s...

Arun George

Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kirin: An Asset Write-Down/Disposal Could Be Pending for the Military Linked Myanmar JV

we wouldn’t be surprised, even if Kirin decides to withdraw from Myanmar operations at a significant loss. Even though it looks more likely that a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Fujitec (6406) - Governance Is Messy – but that Doesn’t Mean It Isn’t Working

Fujitec announced a new strategic plan, trying to fend off further activist encroachment. They addressed operational changes, capital allocation...

Mark Chadwick

Long Kirin/Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt