Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist investor influence in distributing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is coming up cheap versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>. Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. </li>
</ul>


Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is coming up cheap versus Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB). Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. 

Abacus Property (ABP AU) confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Surpassing the pre-COVID average of 49%, the NAV discount currently stands at 61%, implying potential 12% market-neutral returns in the short-term through the recovery of the core transportation business.</li>
<li>Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric's ¥1,980bn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside, surpassing the earlier mentioned 12% gain.</li>
<li>Thus, there is high likelihood of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s continued outperformance over Oriental Land in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


Surpassing the pre-COVID average of 49%, the NAV discount currently stands at 61%, implying potential 12% market-neutral returns in the short-term through the recovery of the core transportation business.
Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric's ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside, surpassing the earlier mentioned 12% gain.
Thus, there is high likelihood of Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s continued outperformance over Oriental Land in the medium term.


Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan's tourism scene is back in action albeit still missing a contribution from China.</li>
<li>On-The-Ground research in Japan has confirmed the above point and the crowded Narita airport.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>operates Skyliner which connects Narita Airport to downtown Tokyo. </li>
</ul>


Japan's tourism scene is back in action albeit still missing a contribution from China.
On-The-Ground research in Japan has confirmed the above point and the crowded Narita airport.

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)operates Skyliner which connects Narita Airport to downtown Tokyo. 


Keisei (9009): Connecting Narita and Tokyo

<ul>
<li>We think there’s something fundamentally wrong with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>’s current valuation.</li>
<li>Its core business with an estimated fair value of ¥720bn, currently has an implied valuation of negative ¥942bn (stub value).</li>
<li>If investors can convince the management to dispose its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, we think there’s more than a 200% upside to Keisei Electric’s valuation.</li>
</ul>


We think there’s something fundamentally wrong with Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)’s current valuation.
Its core business with an estimated fair value of ¥720bn, currently has an implied valuation of negative ¥942bn (stub value).
If investors can convince the management to dispose its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), we think there’s more than a 200% upside to Keisei Electric’s valuation.


Keisei Electric: Needs Activists to Push the Market

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is trading "cheap" as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> enjoys a zero-Covid revival.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Keisei/Oriental Land, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is trading "cheap" as Oriental Land (4661 JP) enjoys a zero-Covid revival.
Preceding my comments on Keisei/Oriental Land, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Mickey Upstages Keisei Electric

Japan

Hitachi Transport System, Ltd. provides freight truck, port harbor, and marine transportation, logistics, cargo handling, warehousing, and customs clearing services.  The Company mainly transports Hitachi Ltd's freight such as industrial machinery and precision equipment.

Kintetsu Group Holdings provides passenger rail, bus, taxi, and freight truck transportation services in the Kinki region including Osaka, Kyoto, and Nara prefectures.  The Company also offers ground, air, and marine logistics services and operates department stores and real estate business.

Kyushu Railway Company, doing business as JR Kyushu, offers transportation services. The Company provides passenger and railway freight services, as well as route, ticket, and time table information. JR Kyushu serves customers in Japan.

Keio Corporation mainly provides rail and bus transportation services for passengers in the Kanto area.  The Company leases real estate and operates department stores and supermarkets.  Keio also operates hotels in the Shinjuku and Sapporo areas.

TOKYU CORPORATION provides passenger rail transportation, bus transportation, truckload services, and air transportation serving the Tokyo and its surrounding areas.  The Company operates department stores, real estate leasing, and hotel businesses.  Through its subsidiaries, Tokyu offers leisure-related services such as travel agents, theaters. golf, and rent car agents.

Odakyu Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Kanto and Chubu areas including Tokyo.  The Company also operates department stores, amusement parks, hotels, real estate, and travel businesses.  The Company provides general construction such as residential building and land development.

Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. is a passenger rail company serving the Kansai area.  The Company also provides passenger bus transportation and logistics services.  In addition, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings operates housing and urban development, athletic facilities, theaters, travel agents, hotels, and other leisure-related services.

SEINO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. comprises a family of companies offering comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions for customers.  The Companyprovides express transportation, door-to-door parcel delivery, moving, contract logistics, and international logistics services via its ground, air, and marine transportation network.  SEINO HOLDINGS also operates Toyota dealers.

TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Kanto area.  The Company also operates a variety of real estate businesses which construct and sell apartment buildings and single houses, and lease buildings.  Tobu Railway operates an array of businesses such as distributors, amusement parks, and hotels.

Nankai Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services which cover South Osaka and northern part of Wakayama, including a railway line to new Kansai International airport.  The Company maintains, leases, and sells real estate, operates department stores, amusement parks, travel agents, hotels, and restaurants, and offers construction works.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd is a rail freight company. The Company provides coal, bulk and general freight haulage services, operating on the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN) and including specialised track maintenance and workshop support functions.

Ryder System, Inc. provides a continuum of logistics, supply chain, and transportation management solutions worldwide.  The Company's offerings range from full-service leasing, commercial rental and maintenance of vehicles to integrated services.  The Company also offers comprehensive supply chain solutions, logistics management services, and e-Commerce solutions.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. engages in the provision of vehicle sharing and rental services. It operates through the Americas and International segments. The Americas segment licenses the firm's brands for car rentals in the United States. The International segment leases out vehicles in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates under the Avis, Budget, Zipcar, Payless, and Apex brands. The company was founded on August 23, 2006 and is headquartered in Parsippany, NJ.

Lyft, Inc. provides online ridesharing services. The Company offers ride booking, payment processing, and car transportation services. Lyft serves customers in the United States.

Schneider National, Inc. operates as a transportation and logistics services company. The Company offers a broad portfolio of premier truckload, intermodal, and logistics solutions, as well as manages hire trucking fleets in North America. Schneider National provides asset-based truckload services with asset-light intermodal and non-asset logistics offerings.

Landstar System, Inc. is a North American truckload carrier.  The Company transports a variety of freight, including iron and steel, automotive products, paper, lumber, chemicals, foodstuffs, and military hardware.  Landstar provides truckload carrier services, intermodal transportation services, and expedited air and truck services to shippers in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holding Co. Ltd. operates as holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers highway operation business, wharfs development and operation, cargo handling and transportation, and other businesses. Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holding provides importing and exporting services.

Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co Ltd. (000088 CH)

Container Corporation of India Limited supplies railway cargo services, via its fleet of container trains.  The Company also provides bonded warehousing services.

Guangshen Railway Company Limited provides railroad passenger, freight transportation, railway facilities, and technical services.  The Company also sells food, beverages and merchandise on aboard and in train stations.

ArcBest Corp is a diversified holding company involved in motor carrier transportation and intermodal transportation operations.  The Company transports a variety of goods around the world.

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors

Surpassing the pre-COVID average of 49%, the NAV discount currently stands at 61%, implying potential 12% market-neutral returns in the short-term...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei (9009): Connecting Narita and Tokyo

Japan's tourism scene is clearly back as we discussed above although the Chinese tourists' presence is still dearly missed. Keisei connects...

Henry Soediarko

Keisei Electric: Needs Activists to Push the Market

Keisei Electric’s core business is in the transportation sector. It served around 170.0m commuters in the east part of Tokyo, Chiba and Ibaraki...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

StubWorld: Mickey Upstages Keisei Electric

Keisei is trading "cheap" as Oriental Land enjoys a zero-Covid revival. This appears a set-up here. The pushback is that the momentum and positive...

David Blennerhassett

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