Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Remain BULLISH <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) </a> with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a>'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yeo-hiap-seng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9051:1" rel="noopener">Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)</a> over-extend their hand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a> has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.</li>
</ul>


Remain BULLISH Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.

Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng andYeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP) over-extend their hand.

Nec Networks (1973 JP) has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> to sub-15%.</li>
<li>Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just &gt;15%, or just &gt;20%. </li>
<li>Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares - the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 <a href="https://www.olc.co.jp/en/news/news_olc/auto_20240426578292/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. </li>
</ul>


In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP) to sub-15%.
Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just &gt;15%, or just &gt;20%. 
Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares - the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 announced (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. 


Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> gained 13.8% yesterday on news that activist investor Murakami-san had acquired a stake.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) gained 13.8% yesterday on news that activist investor Murakami-san had acquired a stake.
Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Keisei Electric's Big Gain On Activist Stake News

<ul>
<li>13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). </li>
<li>Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. </li>
<li>Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai <a href="https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/842158" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of &lt;5% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keikyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3371:1" rel="noopener">Keikyu Corp (9006 JP)</a> and &lt;1% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>. Shares in both jumped.</li>
</ul>


13mos ago, activist investor Palliser Capital spoke at a conference about the value offered by Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) due to its large stake in Oriental Land (4661). 
Keisei outperformed OLC by 30% over 3.5mos. Then it fell all the way back, and more, over the next five months. Asset sale, buyback, AGM proposals. Meh. 
Nov 25th, Toyo Keizai wrote activist Murakami-san had acquired stakes of &lt;5% in Keikyu Corp (9006 JP) and &lt;1% in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP). Shares in both jumped.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.</li>
<li>Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.</li>
<li>The long Keisei Electric, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.
Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.
The long Keisei Electric, short Oriental Land (4661 JP) trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.


Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Japan

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

Oriental Land today announced that its planned FY24-25 2yr buyback of 18mm shares will happen tomorrow in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. 1%. It keeps Keisei...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Keisei Electric's Big Gain On Activist Stake News

Oriental Land (4661 JP) has announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares (0.99% of shares out),. Keisei will sell, yet will keep OLC as an equity...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Toyo Keizai put out an article on Keisei based on a quote from a "market insider". Keisei shares popped 16% in 2 days. There's value, but less than...

Travis Lundy

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

Oriental Land today announced that its planned FY24-25 2yr buyback of 18mm shares will happen tomorrow in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. 1%. It keeps Keisei...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Keisei Electric's Big Gain On Activist Stake News

Oriental Land (4661 JP) has announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares (0.99% of shares out),. Keisei will sell, yet will keep OLC as an equity...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) - Murakami Stake Causes Pop But the Oppty Is Still Unconvincing

Toyo Keizai put out an article on Keisei based on a quote from a "market insider". Keisei shares popped 16% in 2 days. There's value, but less than...

Travis Lundy

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

​Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...