Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>Until the "parent-subsidiary (affiliate) listing" is resolved, the value of parent company isn't  usually reflected. If Keisei has some business interest in holding OLC shares, it's responsible for explaining it.</li>
<li>If OLC shares were mostly sold, there'd be nothing left for Keisei, which couldn't find strategy for using cash, so the decision of not losing the growing affiliate isn't bad.</li>
<li>This small sale is to buy time until a clear growth strategy is found, but once the ratio of foreign shareholders exceeds 1/3, building time will likely become more difficult.</li>
</ul>


Until the "parent-subsidiary (affiliate) listing" is resolved, the value of parent company isn't  usually reflected. If Keisei has some business interest in holding OLC shares, it's responsible for explaining it.
If OLC shares were mostly sold, there'd be nothing left for Keisei, which couldn't find strategy for using cash, so the decision of not losing the growing affiliate isn't bad.
This small sale is to buy time until a clear growth strategy is found, but once the ratio of foreign shareholders exceeds 1/3, building time will likely become more difficult.


Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Keisei's ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In late February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.</li>
<li>I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.</li>
<li>Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn't. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.</li>
</ul>


In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn't. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback - Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric (9009 JP)</a> has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> shares. It has now announced another buyback.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric (9009 JP) has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares. It has now announced another buyback.
Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

Japan

Hitachi Transport System, Ltd. provides freight truck, port harbor, and marine transportation, logistics, cargo handling, warehousing, and customs clearing services.  The Company mainly transports Hitachi Ltd's freight such as industrial machinery and precision equipment.

Kintetsu Group Holdings provides passenger rail, bus, taxi, and freight truck transportation services in the Kinki region including Osaka, Kyoto, and Nara prefectures.  The Company also offers ground, air, and marine logistics services and operates department stores and real estate business.

Kyushu Railway Company, doing business as JR Kyushu, offers transportation services. The Company provides passenger and railway freight services, as well as route, ticket, and time table information. JR Kyushu serves customers in Japan.

Keio Corporation mainly provides rail and bus transportation services for passengers in the Kanto area.  The Company leases real estate and operates department stores and supermarkets.  Keio also operates hotels in the Shinjuku and Sapporo areas.

TOKYU CORPORATION provides passenger rail transportation, bus transportation, truckload services, and air transportation serving the Tokyo and its surrounding areas.  The Company operates department stores, real estate leasing, and hotel businesses.  Through its subsidiaries, Tokyu offers leisure-related services such as travel agents, theaters. golf, and rent car agents.

Odakyu Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Kanto and Chubu areas including Tokyo.  The Company also operates department stores, amusement parks, hotels, real estate, and travel businesses.  The Company provides general construction such as residential building and land development.

Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. is a passenger rail company serving the Kansai area.  The Company also provides passenger bus transportation and logistics services.  In addition, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings operates housing and urban development, athletic facilities, theaters, travel agents, hotels, and other leisure-related services.

SEINO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. comprises a family of companies offering comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions for customers.  The Companyprovides express transportation, door-to-door parcel delivery, moving, contract logistics, and international logistics services via its ground, air, and marine transportation network.  SEINO HOLDINGS also operates Toyota dealers.

TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Kanto area.  The Company also operates a variety of real estate businesses which construct and sell apartment buildings and single houses, and lease buildings.  Tobu Railway operates an array of businesses such as distributors, amusement parks, and hotels.

Nankai Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services which cover South Osaka and northern part of Wakayama, including a railway line to new Kansai International airport.  The Company maintains, leases, and sells real estate, operates department stores, amusement parks, travel agents, hotels, and restaurants, and offers construction works.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd is a rail freight company. The Company provides coal, bulk and general freight haulage services, operating on the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN) and including specialised track maintenance and workshop support functions.

Ryder System, Inc. provides a continuum of logistics, supply chain, and transportation management solutions worldwide.  The Company's offerings range from full-service leasing, commercial rental and maintenance of vehicles to integrated services.  The Company also offers comprehensive supply chain solutions, logistics management services, and e-Commerce solutions.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. engages in the provision of vehicle sharing and rental services. It operates through the Americas and International segments. The Americas segment licenses the firm's brands for car rentals in the United States. The International segment leases out vehicles in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates under the Avis, Budget, Zipcar, Payless, and Apex brands. The company was founded on August 23, 2006 and is headquartered in Parsippany, NJ.

Lyft, Inc. provides online ridesharing services. The Company offers ride booking, payment processing, and car transportation services. Lyft serves customers in the United States.

Schneider National, Inc. operates as a transportation and logistics services company. The Company offers a broad portfolio of premier truckload, intermodal, and logistics solutions, as well as manages hire trucking fleets in North America. Schneider National provides asset-based truckload services with asset-light intermodal and non-asset logistics offerings.

Landstar System, Inc. is a North American truckload carrier.  The Company transports a variety of freight, including iron and steel, automotive products, paper, lumber, chemicals, foodstuffs, and military hardware.  Landstar provides truckload carrier services, intermodal transportation services, and expedited air and truck services to shippers in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holding Co. Ltd. operates as holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers highway operation business, wharfs development and operation, cargo handling and transportation, and other businesses. Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holding provides importing and exporting services.

Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co Ltd. (000088 CH)

Container Corporation of India Limited supplies railway cargo services, via its fleet of container trains.  The Company also provides bonded warehousing services.

Guangshen Railway Company Limited provides railroad passenger, freight transportation, railway facilities, and technical services.  The Company also sells food, beverages and merchandise on aboard and in train stations.

ArcBest Corp is a diversified holding company involved in motor carrier transportation and intermodal transportation operations.  The Company transports a variety of goods around the world.

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 8 Nikkei article, "Keisei Electric Railway to Sell 1% Stake in Tokyo Disney, a Compromise for...

Metrical Inc

StubWorld: Keisei's ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, I'd be disinclined to be long Keisei vs Oriental Land. On balance, I'm more...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced the placement of 1% in Oriental Land (4661 JP) ... but categorically rejected lowering its stake to...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 8 Nikkei article, "Keisei Electric Railway to Sell 1% Stake in Tokyo Disney, a Compromise for...

Metrical Inc

StubWorld: Keisei's ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, I'd be disinclined to be long Keisei vs Oriental Land. On balance, I'm more...

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback - Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

Keisei is doing a ToSTNeT-3. Crossholders might sell, but the purpose is an ASR. Those long Keisei/Short OLC can also sell a large block of Keisei....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced the placement of 1% in Oriental Land (4661 JP) ... but categorically rejected lowering its stake to...

David Blennerhassett