Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, YFO (WK1 Limited) filed an <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100QXII.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2023-06-13T12%3A26%3A16Z&amp;se=2028-06-13T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=oUK2bOEu4Z3eq5k0U3V3UgPd%2FFhlZkvPaUiHl9LDMjc%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendment</a> to its Large Shareholder Filing saying it had increased its stake from 27.19% to 28.51%. GK Yamauchi No10 Family Office bought 1.32%.</li>
<li>Almost immediately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> said YFO<a href="https://www.toyo-const.co.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/20230613.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> had likely conducted an illegal act</a> according to US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 14e-5. This is likely hogwash.</li>
<li>YFO is upping its stake for a zero premium tender and Toyo is fighting old battles. And the stock chugs higher.</li>
</ul>


Today, YFO (WK1 Limited) filed an amendment to its Large Shareholder Filing saying it had increased its stake from 27.19% to 28.51%. GK Yamauchi No10 Family Office bought 1.32%.
Almost immediately, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) said YFO had likely conducted an illegal act according to US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 14e-5. This is likely hogwash.
YFO is upping its stake for a zero premium tender and Toyo is fighting old battles. And the stock chugs higher.


Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX declined by 0.2% on Friday and 0.3% for the week. VIX trading at 17%, near its one-year lows, despite the possibility of a US default. We are wary..</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY futures are trading at a 0.6% premium vs Cash; Foreign investors continue to buy; Earnings season continues to see strong improvements to shareholder returns; Remain bullish JAPAN.</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Comprehrensive IEA report EV Outlook 2023.  EV Sales to reach 14 million,+35%YoY in 2023 - Japanese OEMs continue to lag</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX declined by 0.2% on Friday and 0.3% for the week. VIX trading at 17%, near its one-year lows, despite the possibility of a US default. We are wary..
JAPAN. NKY futures are trading at a 0.6% premium vs Cash; Foreign investors continue to buy; Earnings season continues to see strong improvements to shareholder returns; Remain bullish JAPAN.
NUGGET.  Comprehrensive IEA report EV Outlook 2023.  EV Sales to reach 14 million,+35%YoY in 2023 - Japanese OEMs continue to lag


Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM's Absent

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. </li>
<li>Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>. It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. </li>
<li>There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> in the event that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a>’s results collapse further.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. 
Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP). It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. 
There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) in the event that Kioxia (6600 JP)’s results collapse further.


Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> has been a high conviction long since early November when it reported Q2 earnings and a buyback. Buyback executed, they upped the dividend.</li>
<li>At Q3, earnings were downgraded from ¥700bn to ¥650bn on container biz weakness. FY22 ended at ¥695bn. March 2024 had been forecast at ¥106bn, the forecast is now ¥120bn.</li>
<li>The dividend has been "lowered" to ¥200/share, which is higher than expected. That's for this year.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) has been a high conviction long since early November when it reported Q2 earnings and a buyback. Buyback executed, they upped the dividend.
At Q3, earnings were downgraded from ¥700bn to ¥650bn on container biz weakness. FY22 ended at ¥695bn. March 2024 had been forecast at ¥106bn, the forecast is now ¥120bn.
The dividend has been "lowered" to ¥200/share, which is higher than expected. That's for this year.


KLINE (9107) - Salutary Earnings, Decent Div, Strong Forecast, and Flow To Come

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO

Toyo rails against YFO. ISS recommends to mostly support YFO. YFO increases its stake in Toyo Construction, Toyo objects and calls it unfair...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM's Absent

We have Rebranded from "Good Morning Japan" to "Ohayo Japan" ! SPX largely unchanged last week amid debt limit talks; Japan equites near 52W highs...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

KLINE (9107) - Salutary Earnings, Decent Div, Strong Forecast, and Flow To Come

KLINE generated better-than-expected earnings, and a better-than-expected forecast, higher-than-expected div guidance, and an unexpected...

Travis Lundy

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