Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<p>We hope <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> will publish another set of updated financial statements (from Q3 2020) before it lists in Hong Kong later this year. If and when those results are published, investors should study them carefully to detect signs of a resurgent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a> , the ride-hailing giant that exited the car pool market in late 2018 but quietly re-entered about a year ago.</p>
<p>The two most telling signs of a DiDi ChuXing resurgence in the car pool segment would be: </p>
<ol>
<li>Dida Inc's car pool revenue growing <em>slower</em> than its car pool ride volume or GTV</li>
<li>A sharp rise in Sales &amp; Marketing expenses relative to DiDa Inc's overall revenue</li>
</ol>
<p>Both of the above metrics would be reflected in DiDa Inc's car pool 'take rate': the <em>net</em> revenue it earns on booking car pool rides <em>after</em> deducting any incentives paid to drivers, payments that have likely diminished dramatically in the two years since Didi ChuXing exited the market. </p>
<p>We suspect that in the absence of a large, savvy competitor (like DiDi ChuXing), DiDa Inc's 'take rate' is <em>higher</em> and its spending on Sales &amp; Marketing is <em>lower</em> than it would be otherwise. Signs that DiDi ChuXing is aggressively pushing its way back into this market -- which it used to dominate, and not so long ago -- would be negative for DiDa Inc, in our view.</p>
<p>In fact, the 'free ride' DiDa Inc has enjoyed as the dominant (and quite profitable) player in the growing car pool segment could come to an end. </p>

We hope Dida (DIDA HK) will publish another set of updated financial statements (from Q3 2020) before it lists in Hong Kong later this year. If and when those results are published, investors should study them carefully to detect signs of a resurgent DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH) , the ride-hailing giant that exited the car pool market in late 2018 but quietly re-entered about a year ago.
The two most telling signs of a DiDi ChuXing resurgence in the car pool segment would be: 

Dida Inc's car pool revenue growing slower than its car pool ride volume or GTV
A sharp rise in Sales &amp; Marketing expenses relative to DiDa Inc's overall revenue

Both of the above metrics would be reflected in DiDa Inc's car pool 'take rate': the net revenue it earns on booking car pool rides after deducting any incentives paid to drivers, payments that have likely diminished dramatically in the two years since Didi ChuXing exited the market. 
We suspect that in the absence of a large, savvy competitor (like DiDi ChuXing), DiDa Inc's 'take rate' is higher and its spending on Sales &amp; Marketing is lower than it would be otherwise. Signs that DiDi ChuXing is aggressively pushing its way back into this market -- which it used to dominate, and not so long ago -- would be negative for DiDa Inc, in our view.
In fact, the 'free ride' DiDa Inc has enjoyed as the dominant (and quite profitable) player in the growing car pool segment could come to an end. 

No More 'Free Ride'? Key DiDa Inc Metrics That Could Reveal a DiDi ChuXing Resurgence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV has narrowed since its low in late March; yet <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> is around its widest NAV discount subsequent to the Prosus spin-off in September last year.  Naspers' look-thru discount into Tencent is currently 54%, vs. 34% at the time of the spin-off. </p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...

Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV has narrowed since its low in late March; yet Naspers (NPN SJ) is around its widest NAV discount subsequent to the Prosus spin-off in September last year.  Naspers' look-thru discount into Tencent is currently 54%, vs. 34% at the time of the spin-off. 





Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent and Hang Lung (10 HK) / Hang Lung Properties (101 HK), are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.





As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Naspers Is Cheap To Prosus & Look-Thru

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>This week we highlight Snapchat's platform ambitions, the rebound in social media ad dollars, and the conclusion (?) of the Grubhub deal saga.</strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

This week we highlight Snapchat's platform ambitions, the rebound in social media ad dollars, and the conclusion (?) of the Grubhub deal saga.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​​12/​​2020

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p>A few items that caught our eye this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> seems to be winning work from home in multiple ways, Indian-ecommerce joint ventures are so hot right now, and we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grubhub-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5881:1" rel="noopener">Grubhub Inc (GRUB US)</a> bankers have been busy pushing Just Eat/Delivery Hero rumors.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

A few items that caught our eye this past week: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) seems to be winning work from home in multiple ways, Indian-ecommerce joint ventures are so hot right now, and we think Grubhub Inc (GRUB US) bankers have been busy pushing Just Eat/Delivery Hero rumors.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/5/​​​2020

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV has narrowed considerably since its low in late March ; but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> is at its widest NAV discount subsequent to the Prosus spin-off.  </p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...




Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV has narrowed considerably since its low in late March ; but Naspers (NPN SJ) is at its widest NAV discount subsequent to the Prosus spin-off.  




Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.




These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Naspers Trading Cheap; Prosus Trading Rich(Er)

United Kingdom

Just Eat PLC provides online marketplace for restaurant delivery. The Company offers online takeaway ordering services that allows consumers to search for and order in real-time from their local takeaway restaurants. Just Eat operates worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Just Eat (JE/ LN)

No More 'Free Ride'? Key DiDa Inc Metrics That Could Reveal a DiDi ChuXing Resurgence

DiDa Inc has carved out a niche for itself in China's growing car pool segment. But should ride-hailing giant DiDi ChuXing re-emerge as a player,...

Tracking Traffic

StubWorld: Naspers Is Cheap To Prosus & Look-Thru

This week in StubWorld ... Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV has narrowed since its low in late March; yet Naspers (NPN SJ) is around its widest...

David Blennerhassett

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/12/2020

This week we highlight Snapchat's platform ambitions, the rebound in social media ad dollars, and the conclusion (?) of the Grubhub deal...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/5/2020

A few items that caught our eye this past week: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) seems to be winning work from home in multiple ways, Indian-ecommerce...

Aaron Gabin

StubWorld: Naspers Trading Cheap; Prosus Trading Rich(Er)

This week in StubWorld ... Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV has narrowed considerably since its low in late March ; but Naspers (NPN SJ) is...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

No More 'Free Ride'? Key DiDa Inc Metrics That Could Reveal a DiDi ChuXing Resurgence

DiDa Inc has carved out a niche for itself in China's growing car pool segment. But should ride-hailing giant DiDi ChuXing re-emerge as a player,...

Tracking Traffic

StubWorld: Naspers Is Cheap To Prosus & Look-Thru

This week in StubWorld ... Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV has narrowed since its low in late March; yet Naspers (NPN SJ) is around its widest...

David Blennerhassett

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​​12/​​2020

This week we highlight Snapchat's platform ambitions, the rebound in social media ad dollars, and the conclusion (?) of the Grubhub deal...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/5/​​​2020

A few items that caught our eye this past week: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) seems to be winning work from home in multiple ways, Indian-ecommerce...

Aaron Gabin

StubWorld: Naspers Trading Cheap; Prosus Trading Rich(Er)

This week in StubWorld ... Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV has narrowed considerably since its low in late March ; but Naspers (NPN SJ) is...

David Blennerhassett

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/12/2020

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/5/2020