Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.</li><li>Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.</li><li>But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.</li></ul>

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.</li><li>In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.</li><li>Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.</li></ul>

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.</li><li>Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.</li><li>The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

<ul>
<li>The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.</li>
<li>With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.</li>
<li>If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.
With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.
If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.


Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 More Likely than <130 in USDJPY

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we...

Steno Research

Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will...

Steno Research

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past...

Steno Research

Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 More Likely than <130 in USDJPY

The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary...

Steno Research

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