Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>First Republic Bank had liquidity risk, Pacwest Bank has this and credit risk</li>
<li>Pacwest saw its net charge-offs rise 4x in 1Q23 QoQ and nearly 8x YoY</li>
<li>Deposits are in sharp contraction, but so are net loans, -10% QoQ</li>
</ul>


First Republic Bank had liquidity risk, Pacwest Bank has this and credit risk
Pacwest saw its net charge-offs rise 4x in 1Q23 QoQ and nearly 8x YoY
Deposits are in sharp contraction, but so are net loans, -10% QoQ


<ul>
<li>JPM and Citigroup results may imply radical divergence amongst US banks</li>
<li>Deposit flows into big banks, out of small banks, may be just one feature </li>
<li>Commitment risk, loan contraction, and net interest income can surprise</li>
</ul>


JPM and Citigroup results may imply radical divergence amongst US banks
Deposit flows into big banks, out of small banks, may be just one feature 
Commitment risk, loan contraction, and net interest income can surprise


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.</li>
<li>At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).</li>
<li>Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.</li>
</ul>


Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.
At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).
Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.


Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.</li>
<li>Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. </li>
<li>Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.</li>
</ul>


Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. 
Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.


Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

Pacwest - The Next One?

It appears as though may be more to worry about at PACW compared with FRC, with both liquidity and credit risks, not only the former. It is also...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Large Vs Small

While all eyes are on deposit flows, we should not lose sight of loan contraction, unfunded commitment risk, and also a worsening pace of net...

Daniel Tabbush

Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Confidence in the US banking system has been under stress, and contagion struck Europe as well. The troubles have for now been backstopped, but is...

Steno Research

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing...

Douglas Kim

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