Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag</li>
<li>US large banks' loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks</li>
<li>Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag
US large banks' loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks
Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially


US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week</li>
<li>This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks</li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks


US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

<ul>
<li>Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks</li>
<li>Core to the economy are C&amp;I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%</li>
<li>Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet</li>
</ul>


Weekly US bank data shows sharply decelerating loans at the largest 25 banks
Core to the economy are C&amp;I loans which are showing the pace of growth down 72%
Small US banks appear to be seeing off-balance sheet CRE loans moving on balance sheet


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Among active Global equity funds, exposure to Banking stocks is at the lower end of the decade long range</li>
<li>Over the last 6-months, Banks experienced the largest drop in average fund weight of -0.4%, suffered fund outflows of $-1.98bn and had 40 more sellers than buyers over the period.</li>
<li>The failure of SVB Financial, First Republic and Signature Bank has effected sentiment in US Banks, but elsewhere we see strong momentum in Singaporean Banks, Indonesian Banks and Indian Banks.  </li>
</ul>


Among active Global equity funds, exposure to Banking stocks is at the lower end of the decade long range
Over the last 6-months, Banks experienced the largest drop in average fund weight of -0.4%, suffered fund outflows of $-1.98bn and had 40 more sellers than buyers over the period.
The failure of SVB Financial, First Republic and Signature Bank has effected sentiment in US Banks, but elsewhere we see strong momentum in Singaporean Banks, Indonesian Banks and Indian Banks.  


Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.</li>
<li>Stock market investors living in 'central bank and earnings lalaland' underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.</li>
<li>Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.</li>
</ul>


Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.
Stock market investors living in 'central bank and earnings lalaland' underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.
Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.


Weekly Market Monitor (18) - The Bank Domino Continues

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

High frequency data in the US suggests bank earnings will be weak in coming quarters. Weekly mtg loan vol data nearing 1990 levels, weekly loan...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

Large US banks show far lower loan growth in new weekly data to 19 July with high growth in loan loss reserves. Still relatively high growth in CRE...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Show Major Loan Deceleration

New weekly data from US banks shows sharp deceleration in loan growth at large banks, especially C&I loans, while small banks may be seeing off B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Banks: Positioning Deep Dive

Positioning in the Banking industry group among Global equity funds stalls after US Banking failures, but non-US sentiment is improving.

Steven Holden

Weekly Market Monitor (18) - The Bank Domino Continues

More regional banks are collapsing, but Powell thought things were improving, recession signals are flashing, but investors believe earnings are...

Jeroen Blokland

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