Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

JD Health International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD Health reported 1H2023 results yesterday. 1H revenue increased 34.0% YoY to RMB27.1bn (vs consensus RMB27.5bn) and reported an OP of RMB943.9m (vs consensus RMB753.2m) vs RMB60.1m in 1H2022.</li>
<li>Though the company made OPM of 5.7% in 1Q2023, 1H2023 OPM was 3.5% in line with our analysis that OPM in excess of 2-3% may not be possible in LT.</li>
<li>There is very little upside for GPM to improve unless the company’s high-margin service business takes off at a higher rate which seems unrealistic to us.</li>
</ul>


JD Health reported 1H2023 results yesterday. 1H revenue increased 34.0% YoY to RMB27.1bn (vs consensus RMB27.5bn) and reported an OP of RMB943.9m (vs consensus RMB753.2m) vs RMB60.1m in 1H2022.
Though the company made OPM of 5.7% in 1Q2023, 1H2023 OPM was 3.5% in line with our analysis that OPM in excess of 2-3% may not be possible in LT.
There is very little upside for GPM to improve unless the company’s high-margin service business takes off at a higher rate which seems unrealistic to us.


JD Health 1H2023: Reports Operating Profits; Margin Upside Is Very Limited

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HealthyWay cannot rely on drug/product sales to achieve rapid expansion of revenue scale because it hasn't huge user base accumulated on e-commerce platforms like Taobao/JD.com, leading to different business model.</li>
<li>Relying on Baidu's search engine to guide traffic could be worthless, because B-end users would not pay for the traffic that cannot provide added value.HealthyWay hasn't a strong cornerstone business. </li>
<li>HealthyWay’s valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr. Due to the lack of imagination space in business model, it would to some extent suppress the valuation growth of HealthyWay.</li>
</ul>


HealthyWay cannot rely on drug/product sales to achieve rapid expansion of revenue scale because it hasn't huge user base accumulated on e-commerce platforms like Taobao/JD.com, leading to different business model.
Relying on Baidu's search engine to guide traffic could be worthless, because B-end users would not pay for the traffic that cannot provide added value.HealthyWay hasn't a strong cornerstone business. 
HealthyWay’s valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr. Due to the lack of imagination space in business model, it would to some extent suppress the valuation growth of HealthyWay.


Pre-IPO HealthyWay - The Business Model Lacks Core Competitiveness

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>XPEV: Xpeng and Volkswagen cooperation updates, per the analyst call with IR team (/)</li>
<li>3690.HK: NDRC adds guidelines for restoring consumption of catering and tourism (+)</li>
<li>241HK/ 6618HK：Central Discipline Committee launched crackdown on healthcare corruption (-)</li>
</ul>


XPEV: Xpeng and Volkswagen cooperation updates, per the analyst call with IR team (/)
3690.HK: NDRC adds guidelines for restoring consumption of catering and tourism (+)
241HK/ 6618HK：Central Discipline Committee launched crackdown on healthcare corruption (-)


China TMT Update-XPEV/3690HK/241HK/6618HK-Volkswagen Cooperation;Crackdown on Healthcare Corruption

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, China's largest virtual pharmacy network, <a href="https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=317622517&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=YI&amp;cdn=576c7a62e80e529bffa675d5bed28708&amp;companyName=111+Inc.&amp;formType=SC+13D%2FA&amp;dateFiled=2023-07-17" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amended an SC 13D filing</a> on 13 July, which belatedly updated the consortium’s privatisation offer of US$3.66 per ADS. </li>
<li>The consortium has been revamped such that the lead investors (Dr Gang Yu, Dr Junling Liu and Shanghai Guosheng Capital Management) are joined with 13 additional investors.</li>
<li>The development facilitates the signing of a definite agreement. The consortium represents 95.27% of the voting power, which ensures a successful vote. At last close, the gross spread is 9.6%.</li>
</ul>



111 Inc (YI US), China's largest virtual pharmacy network, amended an SC 13D filing on 13 July, which belatedly updated the consortium’s privatisation offer of US$3.66 per ADS. 
The consortium has been revamped such that the lead investors (Dr Gang Yu, Dr Junling Liu and Shanghai Guosheng Capital Management) are joined with 13 additional investors.
The development facilitates the signing of a definite agreement. The consortium represents 95.27% of the voting power, which ensures a successful vote. At last close, the gross spread is 9.6%.


111 (YI US): The Privatisation Offer Gets a Reboot

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 30th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups. </li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows were USD 20 million and highlight flows for ICBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 30th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups. 
We estimate that the outflows were USD 20 million and highlight flows for ICBC.


China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

JD Health 1H2023: Reports Operating Profits; Margin Upside Is Very Limited

Though JD Health made an OPM of 5.7% in 1Q2023, 1H2023 OPM was 3.5% in line with our analysis that OPM in excess of 2-3% may not be possible in the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Pre-IPO HealthyWay - The Business Model Lacks Core Competitiveness

HealthyWay's model is essentially an intermediary business.The seemingly abundant resources may not necessarily transform into substantial revenue...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TMT Update-XPEV/3690HK/241HK/6618HK-Volkswagen Cooperation;Crackdown on Healthcare Corruption

XPEV: Xpeng and Volkswagen cooperation updates(/);3690.HK: NDRC adds guidelines for restoring consumption(+);241HK/6618HK：Central Discipline...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

111 (YI US): The Privatisation Offer Gets a Reboot

The revamped consortium facilitates the signing of a definite agreement. The consortium represents 95.27% of the voting power, which ensures a...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 30th): ICBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week. We estimate the outflows to be USD 20 million and highlight flows for ICBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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