Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/841/original/BANNER-LOGISTICS.png?1608076389" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178841"></figure></section><p>While still solid, YoY express parcel volume growth in China moderated somewhat in November. Slower growth came as a surprise, as November includes the big "11-11" online shopping holiday. </p><p>An ongoing price war drove down ASPs in November (again). We don't believe companies can offset YoY price declines of 20-30% with unit cost reductions, so margins are likely falling (again). </p><p>Our investment thesis for Chinese express is that growing financial pressures will result in consolidation in 2021. Under this scenario, struggling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25494:1" rel="noopener">BEST Inc (BEST US)</a>, closely aligned with Alibaba's logistics efforts, becomes a potential acquisition target. We rate Best BUY.</p>

While still solid, YoY express parcel volume growth in China moderated somewhat in November. Slower growth came as a surprise, as November includes the big "11-11" online shopping holiday. An ongoing price war drove down ASPs in November (again). We don't believe companies can offset YoY price declines of 20-30% with unit cost reductions, so margins are likely falling (again). Our investment thesis for Chinese express is that growing financial pressures will result in consolidation in 2021. Under this scenario, struggling BEST Inc (BEST US), closely aligned with Alibaba's logistics efforts, becomes a potential acquisition target. We rate Best BUY.

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Growth Moderates | Pricing Stays Depressed

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association announced <em>the Age Rating of Online Game</em>.</li>
<li>Many online platforms stopped selling cash deposit products.</li>
<li>Online payment amount grew by 28% YoY on the shopping season “December 12”.</li>
</ul>


China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association announced the Age Rating of Online Game.
Many online platforms stopped selling cash deposit products.
Online payment amount grew by 28% YoY on the shopping season “December 12”.


China Internet Weekly (21Dec2020): Online Games Rated by Age, Online Platforms Banned from Deposit

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, JD.com, Toyota, NTT, Jardines, Indices/Exec. Orders, Tianneng

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate, and decreased on Financials and Information Technology names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13520:1" rel="noopener">Central Japan Railway Co (9022 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11028:1" rel="noopener">Toto Ltd (5332 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Consumer Staples and Industrials, and decreased on Health Care names.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were large short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chung-hsin-electric-machinery-mfg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3380:1" rel="noopener">Chung Hsin Electric &amp; Machinery Mfg (1513 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/epistar-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6849:1" rel="noopener">Epistar Corp (2448 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>.   </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), China Mobile (941 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK). Shorts increased on Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate, and decreased on Financials and Information Technology names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Honda Motor (7267 JP), Kao Corp (4452 JP), Central Japan Railway Co (9022 JP) and Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP) while shorts decreased on M3 Inc (2413 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Toto Ltd (5332 JP) and Casio Computer (6952 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Consumer Staples and Industrials, and decreased on Health Care names.In Korea, there were large short positions put on in LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS).Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Largan Precision (3008 TT), Unimicron Technology (3037 TT), Chung Hsin Electric &amp; Machinery Mfg (1513 TT) and Innolux Corp (3481 TT) while shorts were covered on TSMC (2330 TT), Walsin Technology (2492 TT), Epistar Corp (2448 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT).   

Asia Short Interest: JD, NetEase, Xiaomi, SMIC, M3, Toto, LG Chem, Celltrion, Largan, TSMC

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>WHO to visit Wuhan, finally</li>
<li>So much to sell, so few containers to use</li>
<li>Cheap veg! Sign up now!</li>
<li>Toymaker Pop Mart has winning formula, for now</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
WHO to visit Wuhan, finally
So much to sell, so few containers to use
Cheap veg! Sign up now!
Toymaker Pop Mart has winning formula, for now
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Price Gauge
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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Growth Moderates | Pricing Stays Depressed

Recent strong volume growth moderated in November, and express industry revenue growth lagged the performance of leading eComm platforms....

Tracking Traffic

China Internet Weekly (21Dec2020): Online Games Rated by Age, Online Platforms Banned from Deposit

Authorities announced the Age Rating of Online Game. Many online platforms stopped selling cash deposit products. Online payment amount grew by 28%...

Ming Lu

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, JD.com, Toyota, NTT, Jardines, Indices/Exec. Orders, Tianneng

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia Short Interest: JD, NetEase, Xiaomi, SMIC, M3, Toto, LG Chem, Celltrion, Largan, TSMC

The weekly short interest report looks at large moves across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan names to gauge investor interest in the stock.

Brian Freitas

Covid-19/ Economy/ Group Buying/ IPOs

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

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52-week Range

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