Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov't subsidies.</li>
<li>We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. </li>
<li>We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.</li>
</ul>


We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov't subsidies.
We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. 
We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For 1Q25E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, driven by the nationwide implementation of the subsidy program, and this could be 1% better than Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>We are also looking for 21% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, also 1% better than consensus, which translates into 3.7% non-GAAP NPM (+0.3ppts YoY).</li><li>Compared to industry peers, JD is less exposed to the potential rise in tariffs given more limited revenue exposure to the US market, and it is betterpositioned to benefit from the nationwide trade-in and subsidy program given greater GMV exposure to electronics and home appliance categories, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 1Q25E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, driven by the nationwide implementation of the subsidy program, and this could be 1% better than Bloomberg consensus.We are also looking for 21% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, also 1% better than consensus, which translates into 3.7% non-GAAP NPM (+0.3ppts YoY).Compared to industry peers, JD is less exposed to the potential rise in tariffs given more limited revenue exposure to the US market, and it is betterpositioned to benefit from the nationwide trade-in and subsidy program given greater GMV exposure to electronics and home appliance categories, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) - Expecting Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>
Bearish strategies dominate trading activity, outnumbering bullish ones by more than 3:1, with long volatility structures and calendar/diagonal spreads being prevalent.</li>
<li>
Long tail events: Several strategies follow a pattern of minimal upfront cost (0.1% premium), targeting a significant payout in case of large price movements within a short timeframe. </li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses JD.com (9618 HK) option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.

Bearish strategies dominate trading activity, outnumbering bullish ones by more than 3:1, with long volatility structures and calendar/diagonal spreads being prevalent.

Long tail events: Several strategies follow a pattern of minimal upfront cost (0.1% premium), targeting a significant payout in case of large price movements within a short timeframe. 


JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see zero index changes based on the latest available data but we estimate there to be US$204mn one-way flows due to capping.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. 
In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see zero index changes based on the latest available data but we estimate there to be US$204mn one-way flows due to capping.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$204mn One-Way; No Index Changes Likely

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.</li>
<li>Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.</li>
<li>Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK) upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.
Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.
Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.


JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Expecting Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth

For 1Q25E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, driven by the nationwide implementation of the...

CMB International

JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades

Analysis of JD.com option strategies on HK Exchange: Bearish strategies dominate, long tail events with minimal upfront cost target significant...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$204mn One-Way; No Index Changes Likely

AAC Technologies and China Literature are the highest-ranked potential ADD and potential DEL respectively. However, both of these names are very...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

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Market Cap (USDm)

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[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

​JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Expecting Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth

For 1Q25E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, driven by the nationwide implementation of the...

CMB International

JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades

​Analysis of JD.com option strategies on HK Exchange: Bearish strategies dominate, long tail events with minimal upfront cost target significant...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$204mn One-Way; No Index Changes Likely

AAC Technologies and China Literature are the highest-ranked potential ADD and potential DEL respectively. However, both of these names are very...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Analysis of JD.com option strategies on HK Exchange: Bearish strategies dominate, long tail events with minimal upfront cost target significant...