Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>It's been a <em>long</em> time since we looked at and wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-korea-express-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11557:1" rel="noopener">CJ Logistics (000120 KS)</a>. In a note we published here way back in June 2017, we said it was highly unlikely CJ Logistics would see the margin improvement needed to hit analysts' consensus forecast of 6,400 won per share in 2018.</p>
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<p>Specifically, we doubted that higher margins would be driven by growth of the company's <em>Global</em> segment, which includes CJ's international freight forwarding business and several overseas logistics units CJ had acquired in an effort to create a "Pan-Asian Logistics Network".</p>
<p>Since we last wrote about the company, CJ Logistics has apparently abandoned its push to become a major player in logistics <em>outside</em> of Korea, focusing instead on a disparate list of domestic initiatives. Overall profitability remains similar to depressed levels from 3-4 years ago. </p>
<p>Since we last tracked them, CJ Logistics' shares haven't performed well: they're down about 24% compared to their 5-year high reached in mid-2016, though like many stocks they have risen from depressed Q120 levels. Unless CJ Logistics can articulate a winning long-term strategy, and then show consistent progress towards executing it successfully, we would avoid the shares. </p>



It's been a long time since we looked at and wrote about CJ Logistics (000120 KS). In a note we published here way back in June 2017, we said it was highly unlikely CJ Logistics would see the margin improvement needed to hit analysts' consensus forecast of 6,400 won per share in 2018.

Specifically, we doubted that higher margins would be driven by growth of the company's Global segment, which includes CJ's international freight forwarding business and several overseas logistics units CJ had acquired in an effort to create a "Pan-Asian Logistics Network".
Since we last wrote about the company, CJ Logistics has apparently abandoned its push to become a major player in logistics outside of Korea, focusing instead on a disparate list of domestic initiatives. Overall profitability remains similar to depressed levels from 3-4 years ago. 
Since we last tracked them, CJ Logistics' shares haven't performed well: they're down about 24% compared to their 5-year high reached in mid-2016, though like many stocks they have risen from depressed Q120 levels. Unless CJ Logistics can articulate a winning long-term strategy, and then show consistent progress towards executing it successfully, we would avoid the shares. 

CJ Logistics: Still Lacking Focus, Still Unlikely to Reach 6,000+ EPS Any Time Soon

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p>In this note, we aim to highlight the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2021. This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various media and other sources.</p>
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<p>For readers who are not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea and A-shares), including China ADRs. Hence, our pipeline will only include companies that fit these criterion.</p>
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<p><strong>Feel free to drop us a message for additional information (bookrunners and coverage) on these IPOs</strong></p>
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In this note, we aim to highlight the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2021. This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various media and other sources.


For readers who are not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea and A-shares), including China ADRs. Hence, our pipeline will only include companies that fit these criterion.


Feel free to drop us a message for additional information (bookrunners and coverage) on these IPOs


Aequitas 2021 Asia IPO Pipeline - More Mega IPOs to Come

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Communication Services, Energy and Consumer Staples, and decreased on Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change Inc (3962 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renova-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26753:1" rel="noopener">RENOVA Inc (9519 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Utilities and Communication Services, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Industrials.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-uplus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1113:1" rel="noopener">LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/richwave-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18629:1" rel="noopener">Richwave Technology (4968 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-jit-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12501:1" rel="noopener">Pan Jit International (2481 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on ICBC (H) (1398 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) while there was short covering on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK), HKEX (388 HK) and JD.com (HK) (9618 HK). Shorts increased on Communication Services, Energy and Consumer Staples, and decreased on Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Change Inc (3962 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), RENOVA Inc (9519 JP) and Shimamura (8227 JP) while shorts decreased on Honda Motor (7267 JP), Kao Corp (4452 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Utilities and Communication Services, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Industrials.In Korea, there were short positions put on in KT Corp (030200 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and Asustek Computer (2357 TT) while shorts were covered on Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Walsin Technology (2492 TT), Richwave Technology (4968 TT) and Pan Jit International (2481 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: China Mobile, CNOOC, Xiaomi, JD, Change, KT, Samsung, TSMC, Largan

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>2020 marked our second full year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While the year started off on a precarious note for ECM, it ended with very strong momentum. Even as IPOs have hogged the limelight in 2020, we actually ended up covering more than twice the number of placements as IPOs. </p><p>We ended 2020 with an accuracy rate of 72.7% across 88 IPOs that we covered and 70.1% across 174 placements. While our placements hit rate improved, our IPO hit rate took a dip from 2019.</p><p>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea), including China ADRs.</p>

2020 marked our second full year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While the year started off on a precarious note for ECM, it ended with very strong momentum. Even as IPOs have hogged the limelight in 2020, we actually ended up covering more than twice the number of placements as IPOs. We ended 2020 with an accuracy rate of 72.7% across 88 IPOs that we covered and 70.1% across 174 placements. While our placements hit rate improved, our IPO hit rate took a dip from 2019.For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea), including China ADRs.

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Singapore based internet company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, benefitted from the COVID-19 pandemic as Sea’s three main businesses lines, mobile gaming platform called Garena, an e-commerce platform called Shopee and a fintech business called SeaMoney experienced a rapid acceleration of revenue growth following the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, the company’s share price surged over 400% during 2020.</li>
<li>In two previous insights on Sea Ltd, we analysed the fundamentals and long-term prospects of the company’s main business lines. This insight focuses on Sea’s valuation.</li>
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Singapore based internet company, Sea Ltd (SE US), benefitted from the COVID-19 pandemic as Sea’s three main businesses lines, mobile gaming platform called Garena, an e-commerce platform called Shopee and a fintech business called SeaMoney experienced a rapid acceleration of revenue growth following the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, the company’s share price surged over 400% during 2020.
In two previous insights on Sea Ltd, we analysed the fundamentals and long-term prospects of the company’s main business lines. This insight focuses on Sea’s valuation.


Sea Ltd Valuation: SOTP Suggests Over 40% Downside Risk

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

CJ Logistics: Still Lacking Focus, Still Unlikely to Reach 6,000+ EPS Any Time Soon

We check in on CJ Logistics, which appears to have pivoted away from its much-hyped international expansion plan from a few years ago. What hasn't...

Tracking Traffic

Aequitas 2021 Asia IPO Pipeline - More Mega IPOs to Come

We aim to highlight the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2021. This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Asia Short Interest: China Mobile, CNOOC, Xiaomi, JD, Change, KT, Samsung, TSMC, Largan

The weekly short interest report looks at large moves across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and helps in determining market interest that could...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

2020 marked our second year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering ECM. In 2020 we had an accuracy rate of...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd Valuation: SOTP Suggests Over 40% Downside Risk

The total EV of Sea’s three main segments is US$ 57.6 billion compared to Sea’s current EV of US$ 100.4 billion. Our SOTP valuation implies 42%...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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