Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins</li>
<li>It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs</li>
<li>Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins
It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs
Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID


ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we preview J&amp;T's maiden earnings report as a listed company</li>
<li>We focus on revenue growth &amp; margin trends in the China &amp; SE Asia businesses</li>
<li>We fear slowing organic growth &amp; margin deterioration could spook investors</li>
</ul>


In this insight we preview J&amp;T's maiden earnings report as a listed company
We focus on revenue growth &amp; margin trends in the China &amp; SE Asia businesses
We fear slowing organic growth &amp; margin deterioration could spook investors


J&T Global Express FY23 Earnings Preview | Revenue Growth & Margin | China, SE Asia, 'Other'

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>With a solid track record in Southeast Asia’s express delivery sector, we believe J&amp;T Global Express (“J&amp;T Global”) is set to replicate its success story in Latin America and the Middle East market. </li><li>Meanwhile, we expect J&amp;T Global to narrow the loss significantly in China market, which will serve as a risk reduction driver.</li><li>We forecast J&amp;T Global to achieve net profit in 2024E. We initiate coverage on J&amp;T Global with a HOLD rating and SOTP-based TP of HK$14.2. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

With a solid track record in Southeast Asia’s express delivery sector, we believe J&amp;T Global Express (“J&amp;T Global”) is set to replicate its success story in Latin America and the Middle East market. Meanwhile, we expect J&amp;T Global to narrow the loss significantly in China market, which will serve as a risk reduction driver.We forecast J&amp;T Global to achieve net profit in 2024E. We initiate coverage on J&amp;T Global with a HOLD rating and SOTP-based TP of HK$14.2. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&T Express (1519 HK) – Largest Express Delivery Operator in SEA to Expand Globally

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist</li>
<li>The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough</li>
<li>In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful</li>
</ul>


In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist
The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough
In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

<ul>
<li>In this insight we provide an overview of Hive Box's business and its history</li>
<li>We then go into detail on key relationships &amp; investors, focusing on SF Holding</li>
<li>We end with some initial questions and what's up next in the IPO process</li>
</ul>


In this insight we provide an overview of Hive Box's business and its history
We then go into detail on key relationships &amp; investors, focusing on SF Holding
We end with some initial questions and what's up next in the IPO process


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 1: What They Do, History, Relationships, & What's Next

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

ZTO's focus on price over volume share gains simply hasn't worked so far in 2024. Until management developts a path towards a return to profitable...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express FY23 Earnings Preview | Revenue Growth & Margin | China, SE Asia, 'Other'

In our preview of the newly-listed express company's full-year and H223 earnings, we explain why we expect to see slowing organic revenue growth...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Express (1519 HK) – Largest Express Delivery Operator in SEA to Expand Globally

With a solid track record in Southeast Asia’s express delivery sector, we believe J&T Global is set to replicate its success story in Latin America...

CMB International

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a publicly-traded smart locker and e-comm fulfillment specialist based in Poland. It's not a perfect...

Tracking Traffic

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 1: What They Do, History, Relationships, & What's Next

Chinese smart locker operator Hive Box has filed to go public in Hong Kong. In this insight we offer an overview of its business, a corporate...

Tracking Traffic

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