Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

<ul>
<li>In this insight we preview J&amp;T's maiden earnings report as a listed company</li>
<li>We focus on revenue growth &amp; margin trends in the China &amp; SE Asia businesses</li>
<li>We fear slowing organic growth &amp; margin deterioration could spook investors</li>
</ul>


In this insight we preview J&amp;T's maiden earnings report as a listed company
We focus on revenue growth &amp; margin trends in the China &amp; SE Asia businesses
We fear slowing organic growth &amp; margin deterioration could spook investors


J&T Global Express FY23 Earnings Preview | Revenue Growth & Margin | China, SE Asia, 'Other'

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

<ul>
<li>KEX's EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223</li>
<li>Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery</li>
<li>Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&amp;T </li>
</ul>


KEX's EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223
Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery
Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&amp;T 


Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express FY23 Earnings Preview | Revenue Growth & Margin | China, SE Asia, 'Other'

In our preview of the newly-listed express company's full-year and H223 earnings, we explain why we expect to see slowing organic revenue growth...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

Q323 was another quarter of Y/Y declines in revenue and margins for KEX, though profitability actually improved versus Q2. The read-through for...

Tracking Traffic

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