Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, helped by exports (+2.7%), PCE (+2.2%), government spending (+4.4%), and falling imports (-1.7%). Slower PCE and government-spending to reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation (the Fed's target) eased to 2.93%YoY in Dec'23, the lowest in 33 months. More crucially, MoM annualized gains in core PCE averaged 1.85% in H2CY23. </li>
<li>13 months of M2 contraction, and deceleration in RGDP and core PCE, provide the perfect backdrop for a rate cut in Jun'24. Expect FOMC to hint at that this week. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, helped by exports (+2.7%), PCE (+2.2%), government spending (+4.4%), and falling imports (-1.7%). Slower PCE and government-spending to reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. 
Core PCE inflation (the Fed's target) eased to 2.93%YoY in Dec'23, the lowest in 33 months. More crucially, MoM annualized gains in core PCE averaged 1.85% in H2CY23. 
13 months of M2 contraction, and deceleration in RGDP and core PCE, provide the perfect backdrop for a rate cut in Jun'24. Expect FOMC to hint at that this week. 


US: On Track for a Rate Cut in Jun'24 as Core PCE Inflation Eases MoM and YoY

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li>Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.</li><li>Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).</li><li>China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).</li></ul>

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation edged up to 3%YoY in Sep'25, after a 0.3%MoM increase. Markets cheered, as these were lower than expectations, but MoM-annualized inflation is running well above the 2% target. </li>
<li>The Powell Fed's politically-driven 75bp of rate cuts in Sep-Nov'24 are now obliging it to effectively move to a 3%YoY inflation target; a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week. </li>
<li>Base money contracted US$88.8bn in Mar-Aug'25, so M2 growth was modest (4.8%YoY). But the rise in crude prices (post-Russian sanctions) will raise inflation past 3%, precluding any Dec'25 rate cut. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation edged up to 3%YoY in Sep'25, after a 0.3%MoM increase. Markets cheered, as these were lower than expectations, but MoM-annualized inflation is running well above the 2% target. 
The Powell Fed's politically-driven 75bp of rate cuts in Sep-Nov'24 are now obliging it to effectively move to a 3%YoY inflation target; a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week. 
Base money contracted US$88.8bn in Mar-Aug'25, so M2 growth was modest (4.8%YoY). But the rise in crude prices (post-Russian sanctions) will raise inflation past 3%, precluding any Dec'25 rate cut. 


US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>US government shutdown likely, with significant impact on data releases</li><li>US payrolls report delayed by potential government shutdown, expected to show improvement in September</li><li>Nomura's chief economist for developed markets discusses potential outcome of government shutdown and expectations for US payrolls data</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US government shutdown likely, with significant impact on data releasesUS payrolls report delayed by potential government shutdown, expected to show improvement in SeptemberNomura's chief economist for developed markets discusses potential outcome of government shutdown and expectations for US payrolls dataThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Steepening of the 530s treasury curve globally is at historically high levels, driven by different factors in the US, Europe, and the UK</li><li>US curve steepness is reflective of repricing of additional Fed easing, while Europe's steepening is technical and related to Dutch pension fund transitions</li><li>Market hesitancy to fade the steepness due to ongoing technical flows in Europe and front-end driven steepening in the US, with uncertainty surrounding terminal rates in both regions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Steepening of the 530s treasury curve globally is at historically high levels, driven by different factors in the US, Europe, and the UKUS curve steepness is reflective of repricing of additional Fed easing, while Europe's steepening is technical and related to Dutch pension fund transitionsMarket hesitancy to fade the steepness due to ongoing technical flows in Europe and front-end driven steepening in the US, with uncertainty surrounding terminal rates in both regionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

United States

IShares US Treasury Bond is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the ICE U.S. Treasury Core Bond Index.

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iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT US)

US: On Track for a Rate Cut in Jun'24 as Core PCE Inflation Eases MoM and YoY

Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, but slower PCE and government spending will reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. Core PCE inflation eased to 2.93%YoY in...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch. Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates...

Dr. Jim Walker

US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now

CPI inflation up 3%YoY in Sep'25, but a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week as the Powell Fed adjusts to a 3% inflation target to atone for Sep...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Week Ahead – Course Correction?

This week, market volatility is driven by lower US yields and a higher US dollar, uncertainty surrounding a potential government shutdown, delayed...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

The steepness in bond curves across the US, Europe, and UK has deepened due to various drivers, making it challenging to fade the steepness in the...

At Any Rate

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US: On Track for a Rate Cut in Jun'24 as Core PCE Inflation Eases MoM and YoY

​Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, but slower PCE and government spending will reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. Core PCE inflation eased to 2.93%YoY in...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch. Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates...

Dr. Jim Walker

US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now

​CPI inflation up 3%YoY in Sep'25, but a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week as the Powell Fed adjusts to a 3% inflation target to atone for Sep...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Week Ahead – Course Correction?

This week, market volatility is driven by lower US yields and a higher US dollar, uncertainty surrounding a potential government shutdown, delayed...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

The steepness in bond curves across the US, Europe, and UK has deepened due to various drivers, making it challenging to fade the steepness in the...

At Any Rate

Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, but slower PCE and government spending will reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. Core PCE inflation eased to 2.93%YoY in...

CPI inflation up 3%YoY in Sep'25, but a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week as the Powell Fed adjusts to a 3% inflation target to atone for Sep...