Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.</li><li>Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.</li><li>This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. </li></ul>

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. 

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Both the uber-hawk who is his new NSA, and the super-hawk seeking Senate confirmation as Secretary of State, agree with President Trump's antipathy toward Iran. Like Mossadegh (1953) and Khatami (2002), another Iranian reformer aiming at a rapprochement with the West (Rouhani) will soon face heightening hostility and sanctions that will empower the hardliners in Iran and take West Asia closer to another great war -- which could unravel Iraq and worsen the Syria situation.  Fortunately, the…

Both the uber-hawk who is his new NSA, and the super-hawk seeking Senate confirmation as Secretary of State, agree with President Trump's antipathy toward Iran. Like Mossadegh (1953) and Khatami (2002), another Iranian reformer aiming at a rapprochement with the West (Rouhani) will soon face heightening hostility and sanctions that will empower the hardliners in Iran and take West Asia closer to another great war -- which could unravel Iraq and worsen the Syria situation.  Fortunately, the…

Trump's Foreign Policy Echo-Chamber Allows the Narrowest Corridor for Peace with Iran/DPRK

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&amp;P 1,918 with scope of reaching for 1,950 thus the most probable target comes in at 1,938.We touted putting on some risk and reducing shorts last week in anticipation of a risk on bounce sequence to re cycle shorts into.WTI called for rise from 28 was off the mark with a low at 26.19; rally target is pattern resistance at 34 but will have immediate trouble above 32. Upside from here will be harder. MT bear target in the 25 region.USD was due for profit taking versus the CAD in particular (slipping below our 1.42 dip target) but also versus some EM FX but our strategic bullish USD view remains firm against EM FX and commodity currencies. Euro is losing ground on stimulus jawboning while the GBP is oversold with sell resistance now at 1.45; our macro 1.35 target is in sight. USD/JPY to see rally to 119.40 if not 120 for a key turn lower again.EEM kissed our 27.50 major target to cover some shorts and the break above resistance on Friday triggered another reduce point for shorts with a 31-32 target to re cycle shorts for test on 26. Asian FX - Lock in gains in THB and MYR shorts. KRW and SGD shorts re cycle/add on chart dips. INR hit 68 in line with a Nifty low.Cycles – The current snap back rally cycle will see price swings moderate and expected to last into early February when a turn is very probable around the 5th.

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&amp;P 1,918 with scope of reaching for 1,950 thus the most probable target comes in at 1,938.We touted putting on some risk and reducing shorts last week in anticipation of a risk on bounce sequence to re cycle shorts into.WTI called for rise from 28 was off the mark with a low at 26.19; rally target is pattern resistance at 34 but will have immediate trouble above 32. Upside from here will be harder. MT bear target in the 25 region.USD was due for profit taking versus the CAD in particular (slipping below our 1.42 dip target) but also versus some EM FX but our strategic bullish USD view remains firm against EM FX and commodity currencies. Euro is losing ground on stimulus jawboning while the GBP is oversold with sell resistance now at 1.45; our macro 1.35 target is in sight. USD/JPY to see rally to 119.40 if not 120 for a key turn lower again.EEM kissed our 27.50 major target to cover some shorts and the break above resistance on Friday triggered another reduce point for shorts with a 31-32 target to re cycle shorts for test on 26. Asian FX - Lock in gains in THB and MYR shorts. KRW and SGD shorts re cycle/add on chart dips. INR hit 68 in line with a Nifty low.Cycles – The current snap back rally cycle will see price swings moderate and expected to last into early February when a turn is very probable around the 5th.

United States

iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of equal weighted U.S. equities.

ishares msci usa equal weighted etf (EUSA US)

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey,...

Steno Research

Trump's Foreign Policy Echo-Chamber Allows the Narrowest Corridor for Peace with Iran/DPRK

Both the uber-hawk who is his new NSA, and the super-hawk seeking Senate confirmation as Secretary of State, agree with President Trump's antipathy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Measuring Rally Caps

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&P...

Thomas Schroeder