Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December.</li><li>German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.</li><li>Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024.</li></ul>

We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December.German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024.

EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we are back on track for a global economic cooldown.</li><li>Central bankers are slowly but surely conceding to inflation being the last war and as they shift their primary focus shifts toward keeping the bottom up on the economy and avoiding the nasty R-word to spread.</li><li>Recently Knot in ECB has turned his back on the hawk line which is the first step toward an actual pivot as hardliners need to cede ground to the doves in the council:Chart 1: ECB Governing Council: Knot moving toward Center, more to follow?</li></ul>

With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we are back on track for a global economic cooldown.Central bankers are slowly but surely conceding to inflation being the last war and as they shift their primary focus shifts toward keeping the bottom up on the economy and avoiding the nasty R-word to spread.Recently Knot in ECB has turned his back on the hawk line which is the first step toward an actual pivot as hardliners need to cede ground to the doves in the council:Chart 1: ECB Governing Council: Knot moving toward Center, more to follow?

Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.</li>
<li>The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.</li>
</ul>


The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.
The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.
Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.


Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>The past few weeks have seen the most violent spike in Brexit fears since January '19, but sentiment analysis suggests the worst is already behind as our Brexit sentiment indicator has already turned positive in recent days on multiple accounts of potential resolution on the most contentious Northern Ireland issue</li>
<li>Since the June '16 referendum, spikes in "No-Deal Brexit" or "Hard Brexit" fears have given us many vol spikes but rarely a superior absolute sell signal for UK equities or GBP/USD</li>
<li>The recent positive dynamic is manifesting in GBP/USD, but in the context of a UK spike in COVID-19 cases and new mobility restrictions, the UK equity picture requires greater conviction on Brexit in order to brighten up</li>
<li>Though negotiations have repeatedly stumbled, greater clarity will likely arrive by the end of this week at the conclusion of Brussels talks</li>
<li>GBP/USD saw a buildup of speculative interest during the summer along with other pro-cyclical currency pairs, but that dynamic has reversed to neutral in recent weeks; nonetheless we still see more outright street recommendations for weak GBP expressions ahead of negotiation outcomes (either outright, or via FX options) suggesting consensus remains preoccupied with negative Brexit outcomes</li>
<li>The magnitude of Brexit sentiment reversal is particularly interesting in light of elevated GBP vols</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


The past few weeks have seen the most violent spike in Brexit fears since January '19, but sentiment analysis suggests the worst is already behind as our Brexit sentiment indicator has already turned positive in recent days on multiple accounts of potential resolution on the most contentious Northern Ireland issue
Since the June '16 referendum, spikes in "No-Deal Brexit" or "Hard Brexit" fears have given us many vol spikes but rarely a superior absolute sell signal for UK equities or GBP/USD
The recent positive dynamic is manifesting in GBP/USD, but in the context of a UK spike in COVID-19 cases and new mobility restrictions, the UK equity picture requires greater conviction on Brexit in order to brighten up
Though negotiations have repeatedly stumbled, greater clarity will likely arrive by the end of this week at the conclusion of Brussels talks
GBP/USD saw a buildup of speculative interest during the summer along with other pro-cyclical currency pairs, but that dynamic has reversed to neutral in recent weeks; nonetheless we still see more outright street recommendations for weak GBP expressions ahead of negotiation outcomes (either outright, or via FX options) suggesting consensus remains preoccupied with negative Brexit outcomes
The magnitude of Brexit sentiment reversal is particularly interesting in light of elevated GBP vols
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: Wild Brexit Sentiment Ride Turning Positive Again?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*FT Suggests Sea Change In US Strategy: In a Financial Times article dated May 25th“HSBC board rethinks overhaul and seeks even sharper cuts”, it was discussed that the Board is particularly scrutinizing the bank’s US business – questioning whether the US operation is viable at all. Seemingly, the Board is even contemplating a sale of this franchise; and   *Sale May Cause Group A Massive Capital Raise: In the case of the latest large bank transaction, BB&amp;T paid USD 28.2 bn in an all stock deal for SunTrust – a relatively clean bank in the US south. This amounted to deal metrics of 1.16x P/BV; 2.03x P/TBV; and a deposit premium of 2.44%, by our calculation, at the date of deal announcement. Provided that HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN/5.HK) can find a cash buyer who only thinks it needs to account for Year 1 of operating losses and replenish the loss of regulatory capital, HSBCNA will cause HSBC to incur a loss on sale of between USD 14.1-16.7 bn. Year 2 valuation is even uglier, as report a loss of between USD 31.3-35.6 bn. A loss of this magnitude represents between 32.0%-36.4% of Group market cap.

*FT Suggests Sea Change In US Strategy: In a Financial Times article dated May 25th“HSBC board rethinks overhaul and seeks even sharper cuts”, it was discussed that the Board is particularly scrutinizing the bank’s US business – questioning whether the US operation is viable at all. Seemingly, the Board is even contemplating a sale of this franchise; and   *Sale May Cause Group A Massive Capital Raise: In the case of the latest large bank transaction, BB&amp;T paid USD 28.2 bn in an all stock deal for SunTrust – a relatively clean bank in the US south. This amounted to deal metrics of 1.16x P/BV; 2.03x P/TBV; and a deposit premium of 2.44%, by our calculation, at the date of deal announcement. Provided that HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN/5.HK) can find a cash buyer who only thinks it needs to account for Year 1 of operating losses and replenish the loss of regulatory capital, HSBCNA will cause HSBC to incur a loss on sale of between USD 14.1-16.7 bn. Year 2 valuation is even uglier, as report a loss of between USD 31.3-35.6 bn. A loss of this magnitude represents between 32.0%-36.4% of Group market cap.

HSBC Holdings – Letting A Good Crisis Go To Waste

United States

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the British market, as measured by the MSCI United Kingdom Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ET (EWU US)

EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)

We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December. German consensus numbers look relatively...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we...

Steno Research

The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight

The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.

Cam Hui

TMI Snapshots: Wild Brexit Sentiment Ride Turning Positive Again?

Since the June '16 referendum, Brexit has given us

Elan Gore

HSBC Holdings – Letting A Good Crisis Go To Waste

*FT Suggests Sea Change In US Strategy: In a Financial Times article dated May 25th“HSBC board rethinks overhaul and seeks even sharper cuts”, it...

Thomas J. Monaco