Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, the European Commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.</li>
<li>Ukraine is thereby catching up to countries such as Montenegro, Serbia, and North Macedonia whose accession processes have been underway since the 00s.</li>
<li>Accepting Ukraine with a population of 43,79 million into the EU will be the end to the Union as we know it.</li>
</ul>


On Wednesday, the European Commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.
Ukraine is thereby catching up to countries such as Montenegro, Serbia, and North Macedonia whose accession processes have been underway since the 00s.
Accepting Ukraine with a population of 43,79 million into the EU will be the end to the Union as we know it.


EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition Victory in Poland Opens Door for Ukraine in the EU?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday.</li><li>It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, but the result wasn’t as clear-cut as many expected.</li><li>Many analysts have pointed to a potential lengthy government formation process and painted this as really bad news for the Spanish economy – but is that really the case?</li></ul>

In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday.It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, but the result wasn’t as clear-cut as many expected.Many analysts have pointed to a potential lengthy government formation process and painted this as really bad news for the Spanish economy – but is that really the case?

Great Game: Is a Hung Parliament bad news for markets?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.</li><li>Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.</li><li>This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. </li></ul>

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. 

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Angela Merkel will retire from the Chancellorship with stratospheric poll numbers -- 80% of the electorate approving of her -- but without being able to ensure a smooth leadership succession for her own CDU/CSU alliance. The Social Democrats (SPD), who have been junior partners to the CDU/CSU for the past decade (and saw their vote share sink to an all-time low of 20.5% in 2017), emerged as narrow winners of this election  (25.7% of the vote) -- led by Olaf Schulz, the determinedly centrist Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister in Merkel's government. Schulz was expected to be less austere than his CSU predecessor, but barely loosened the fiscal purse-strings. The electorate appeared to have picked him primarily because he was more similar to Merkel (in competence, unflappability and fiscal conservatism) than the 2 leaders picked by the CDU.  Olaf Schulz, the winner of a plurality, was quick to call on the Greens (who saw a big jump to 14.8% of the vote) and the Liberals (FDP, with 11.5%) -- the 3 parties who had gained vote-share in the 2021 election -- to combine to create a coalition to honour the electoral outcome. The main challenge, however, will be the policy-incompatibility between the Greens and FDP, which thwarted their participation in a coalition with CDU/CSU after the 2017 election, obliging Merkel to go back to a grand coalition after 5 months' negotiations. The Greens and FDP have entered talks to chalk out a joint program (and cabinet allocation among them) before they approach Schulz (or Laschet) to form the national coalition. A Schulz-led coalition will be very similar to a Merkel-led one in terms of policy. However, on foreign policy, the environment and perhaps on immigration, it will likely be more left-wing than Merkel's governments. The Nordstrom 2 gas pipeline from Russia is likely to be opposed (or at least not supported enthusiastically) by the Greens. Whether the FDP or Greens have the key economic portfolios will be crucial to determining the degree of leftward tilt in policy: the FDP are Germany's liberals, usually advocating lower taxes, freer trade and reduced government intervention (including on climate change, an area where FDP and Greens will clash). The immediate impact will likely be a period of mild weakness for the Euro, given the uncertainty over the formation of a government in Germany (implying policy paralysis there) while the US embarks on "tapering", a gradual tightening of monetary conditions.

Angela Merkel will retire from the Chancellorship with stratospheric poll numbers -- 80% of the electorate approving of her -- but without being able to ensure a smooth leadership succession for her own CDU/CSU alliance. The Social Democrats (SPD), who have been junior partners to the CDU/CSU for the past decade (and saw their vote share sink to an all-time low of 20.5% in 2017), emerged as narrow winners of this election  (25.7% of the vote) -- led by Olaf Schulz, the determinedly centrist Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister in Merkel's government. Schulz was expected to be less austere than his CSU predecessor, but barely loosened the fiscal purse-strings. The electorate appeared to have picked him primarily because he was more similar to Merkel (in competence, unflappability and fiscal conservatism) than the 2 leaders picked by the CDU.  Olaf Schulz, the winner of a plurality, was quick to call on the Greens (who saw a big jump to 14.8% of the vote) and the Liberals (FDP, with 11.5%) -- the 3 parties who had gained vote-share in the 2021 election -- to combine to create a coalition to honour the electoral outcome. The main challenge, however, will be the policy-incompatibility between the Greens and FDP, which thwarted their participation in a coalition with CDU/CSU after the 2017 election, obliging Merkel to go back to a grand coalition after 5 months' negotiations. The Greens and FDP have entered talks to chalk out a joint program (and cabinet allocation among them) before they approach Schulz (or Laschet) to form the national coalition. A Schulz-led coalition will be very similar to a Merkel-led one in terms of policy. However, on foreign policy, the environment and perhaps on immigration, it will likely be more left-wing than Merkel's governments. The Nordstrom 2 gas pipeline from Russia is likely to be opposed (or at least not supported enthusiastically) by the Greens. Whether the FDP or Greens have the key economic portfolios will be crucial to determining the degree of leftward tilt in policy: the FDP are Germany's liberals, usually advocating lower taxes, freer trade and reduced government intervention (including on climate change, an area where FDP and Greens will clash). The immediate impact will likely be a period of mild weakness for the Euro, given the uncertainty over the formation of a government in Germany (implying policy paralysis there) while the US embarks on "tapering", a gradual tightening of monetary conditions. 

Germany Shifts to the Left Despite Retiring Merkel's Stratospheric Poll Numbers

Germany

iShares MSCI Germany ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.

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EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition Victory in Poland Opens Door for Ukraine in the EU?

The support of Poland will be key for Ukraine heading into negotiations with the EU. The Polish election on Oct 15th enjoyed significant...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

Great Game: Is a Hung Parliament bad news for markets?

In the blistering heat of summer, Spanish voters went to the polls on Sunday. It was expected to be a tough race for incumbent centre-left Prime...

Steno Research

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey,...

Steno Research

Germany Shifts to the Left Despite Retiring Merkel's Stratospheric Poll Numbers

Germany has shifted mainstream left, with SPD & Greens the big winners (gaining 11pp higher share of the vote), and extremist AfD and Die Linke...

Prasenjit K. Basu