Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.</li>
<li>The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).</li>
<li>Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.</li>
</ul>


The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.


Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.</li><li>In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.</li><li>Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.</li></ul>

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, the European Commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.</li>
<li>Ukraine is thereby catching up to countries such as Montenegro, Serbia, and North Macedonia whose accession processes have been underway since the 00s.</li>
<li>Accepting Ukraine with a population of 43,79 million into the EU will be the end to the Union as we know it.</li>
</ul>


On Wednesday, the European Commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.
Ukraine is thereby catching up to countries such as Montenegro, Serbia, and North Macedonia whose accession processes have been underway since the 00s.
Accepting Ukraine with a population of 43,79 million into the EU will be the end to the Union as we know it.


EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition Victory in Poland Opens Door for Ukraine in the EU?

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.</li>
<li>The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.</li>
</ul>


The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.
The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.
Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

- For a man who had never previously held electoral office, President Emmanuel Macron's remarkable electoral run this year reached a new height on Sunday with a spectacular landslide in the first round of the legislative election. If the trend holds in the second round, Macron's REM party could have 430 of the 577 seats in the new assembly. With a party of neophyte non-politicians personally beholden to him, President Macron is superbly positioned to enact every piece of legislation he desires…

- For a man who had never previously held electoral office, President Emmanuel Macron's remarkable electoral run this year reached a new height on Sunday with a spectacular landslide in the first round of the legislative election. If the trend holds in the second round, Macron's REM party could have 430 of the 577 seats in the new assembly. With a party of neophyte non-politicians personally beholden to him, President Macron is superbly positioned to enact every piece of legislation he desires…

Macron's Magical Run Continues: Good for the Euro

France

iShares MSCI France ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of publicly traded securities in the French market, as measured by the MSCI France Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique and weighting based on market cap.

ishares msci france etf (EWQ US)

Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

Steno Research

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in...

Steno Research

EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition Victory in Poland Opens Door for Ukraine in the EU?

The support of Poland will be key for Ukraine heading into negotiations with the EU. The Polish election on Oct 15th enjoyed significant...

Steno Research

The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight

The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.

Cam Hui

Macron's Magical Run Continues: Good for the Euro

- For a man who had never previously held electoral office, President Emmanuel Macron's remarkable electoral run this year reached a new height on...

Prasenjit K. Basu