Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.</li>
<li>Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.</li>
<li>The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has been selling off since early October 2025 and reached a -35% loss around November 20, then bounced back, the rally is currently ongoing.
Our focus is always short-term and in this insight we will try to analyze how far the current BTC-USD spot rally can go before a new sell-off begins.
The alternate hypothesis is that the current downturn is merely a sharp, tactical correction within a larger secular bull market. Under this interpretation, the pullback could be a buying opportunity.


Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.</li>
<li>The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.</li>
<li>Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.


Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.</li>
<li>We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.
We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.


Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Whatever economic scenario unfolds in 2026, a long Gold/short Bitcoin investment should outperform. The position is up more than 50% since October.</li>
<li>As one of the most leveraged and speculative parts of global asset markets, Bitcoin will struggle as the Fed ends its interest rate cuts by the end of 2026.</li>
<li>Gold continues to benefit from the Fed's pro-inflation policies, particularly with the restart of its $40 billion monthly QE program.  Continued currency debasement also supports a contnuation of gold's rise.</li>
</ul>


Whatever economic scenario unfolds in 2026, a long Gold/short Bitcoin investment should outperform. The position is up more than 50% since October.
As one of the most leveraged and speculative parts of global asset markets, Bitcoin will struggle as the Fed ends its interest rate cuts by the end of 2026.
Gold continues to benefit from the Fed's pro-inflation policies, particularly with the restart of its $40 billion monthly QE program.  Continued currency debasement also supports a contnuation of gold's rise.


2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strategy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Strategy (MSTR US)</a>'s market cap has for near-on five years, traded at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. </li>
<li>The backbone of Strategy's levered strategy is issue new shares or debt, acquire more bitcoins, which in turn, boost the share price. Rinse and repeat. Until the music stops.</li>
<li>That market cap is now at its widest discount in five years. And chairman Michael Saylor scandalously mooted the company may sell some bitcoins IF the discount persists.</li>
</ul>



Strategy (MSTR US)'s market cap has for near-on five years, traded at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. 
The backbone of Strategy's levered strategy is issue new shares or debt, acquire more bitcoins, which in turn, boost the share price. Rinse and repeat. Until the music stops.
That market cap is now at its widest discount in five years. And chairman Michael Saylor scandalously mooted the company may sell some bitcoins IF the discount persists.


Strategy (MSTR US)'s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

United States

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund domiciled in the USA. The investment objective is to reflect the performance of spot bitcoin.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT US)

Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Nico Rosti

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show...

David Mudd

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming $XLY $XME $KRE $KBE $JETS $ITB $XBI $TAN...

Vermilion Research

2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin

Whatever economic scenario unfolds in 2026, a long Gold/short Bitcoin investment should outperform. The position is up more than 50% since October.

David Mudd

Strategy (MSTR US)'s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

At a wide premium, Strategy was arguably a short. That was my prior (tentative) call. I've got no ax right here. If you're a bitcoin fan, buy ETFs...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bitcoin Tactical Outlook After The -35% Drop

​Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...

Nico Rosti

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show...

David Mudd

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming $XLY $XME $KRE $KBE $JETS $ITB $XBI $TAN...

Vermilion Research

2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin

Whatever economic scenario unfolds in 2026, a long Gold/short Bitcoin investment should outperform. The position is up more than 50% since October.

David Mudd

Strategy (MSTR US)'s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

At a wide premium, Strategy was arguably a short. That was my prior (tentative) call. I've got no ax right here. If you're a bitcoin fan, buy ETFs...

David Blennerhassett

Bitcoin experienced a -35% loss in Oct-Nov 2025 (it's currently in a rebound rally). We try to determine how long the current uptrend can continue...