Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/7d5a19cc-4fa7-7ce9-a947-44dcefea9f27?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vale</a>, <a href="https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2024/240717_bhpoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP</a>, <a href="https://www.angloamericankumba.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group-v5/Kumba/press-releases/2024/q2-2024-production-and-sales-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kumba</a>, and <a href="https://www.mtgibsoniron.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/MGX-June-Quarter-2024-Activities-Report-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson.</a> Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.</li>
<li>Read our recent production preview <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fortescue-metals-group-fmg-au-high-dividend-yield-of-9-what-to-expect-from-q4-fy24" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:151567" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24,</a> to be declared on the 25th of July. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.
Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for Vale, BHP, Kumba, and Mount Gibson. Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.
Read our recent production preview Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24, to be declared on the 25th of July. 


Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> trades at a steady dividend yield of 9%, assuming a 115 USD/ton iron ore price and an 80% payout. </li>
<li>The payout risk lies in incremental capex spend on green energy in future years. For FY24, the company has committed USD 500 mn  (overall capex 3.0-3.2 bn USD). </li>
<li>We expect shipments of ~54 million tons for Q4 FY24 (in its production report to be released on 25th July) and 192 million tons for FY24 (flat YoY).</li>
</ul>



Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) trades at a steady dividend yield of 9%, assuming a 115 USD/ton iron ore price and an 80% payout. 
The payout risk lies in incremental capex spend on green energy in future years. For FY24, the company has committed USD 500 mn  (overall capex 3.0-3.2 bn USD). 
We expect shipments of ~54 million tons for Q4 FY24 (in its production report to be released on 25th July) and 192 million tons for FY24 (flat YoY).


Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Following the iron ore rally at the start of the month, prices have corrected sharply lower owing to downbeat economic data and an inventory buildup.</li>
<li>Option activity over the past week was notably skewed towards put options suggesting a negative sentiment. Weekly options volume was sharply lower WoW.</li>
<li>Recent bearish sentiment has been accompanied by a decline in IV. Outcome from the plenary meeting is likely to reignite volatility in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


Following the iron ore rally at the start of the month, prices have corrected sharply lower owing to downbeat economic data and an inventory buildup.
Option activity over the past week was notably skewed towards put options suggesting a negative sentiment. Weekly options volume was sharply lower WoW.
Recent bearish sentiment has been accompanied by a decline in IV. Outcome from the plenary meeting is likely to reignite volatility in the coming weeks.


[Iron Options Weekly 2024/28] Supply/Demand Outlook for Iron Ore Outweighs Stimulus Hopes

<ul>
<li>Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.</li>
<li>China's iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. </li>
<li>The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.
China's iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. 
The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.


Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. </li>
<li>We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. 
Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. 
We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Vale (VALE US).


Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24

We summarize our expectation from Fortescue Metals Q4 operational report to be declared on the 25th of July and the annual results on the 28th of...

Sameer Taneja

[Iron Options Weekly 2024/28] Supply/Demand Outlook for Iron Ore Outweighs Stimulus Hopes

Iron ore prices rallied in early July but moderated last week due to inventory buildup & downbeat economic data. Options activity slowed as...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

China's anticipated stimulus package at the Third Plenum is boosting iron ore prices, despite a buildup in inventories and decline in steel...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

With the latest 10% bounce in iron ore prices and coking coal prices, we provide actionable ideas to play iron ore in equities/options etc.

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24

We summarize our expectation from Fortescue Metals Q4 operational report to be declared on the 25th of July and the annual results on the 28th of...

Sameer Taneja

[Iron Options Weekly 2024/28] Supply/Demand Outlook for Iron Ore Outweighs Stimulus Hopes

Iron ore prices rallied in early July but moderated last week due to inventory buildup & downbeat economic data. Options activity slowed as...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

​China's anticipated stimulus package at the Third Plenum is boosting iron ore prices, despite a buildup in inventories and decline in steel...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

With the latest 10% bounce in iron ore prices and coking coal prices, we provide actionable ideas to play iron ore in equities/options etc.

Sameer Taneja

China's anticipated stimulus package at the Third Plenum is boosting iron ore prices, despite a buildup in inventories and decline in steel...