Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.</li>
<li>Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.</li>
<li>We update investors on <span>Vale's (VALE US) recent <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/f3e7e25d-31a1-8e6d-107d-e05c2eb8e08b?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal </a></span>to the government to settle the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_dam_disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariana Dam</a> disaster.</li>
</ul>


After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.


Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures declined by $1.94/ton over the week, closing at $106.21/ton on October 11th, with prices ranging between $103.05 and $115/ton.</li>
<li>DCE premium over SGX surged to 10% on 8/Oct as DCE reopened after Golden Week, but the spread narrowed to 4.8% by 11/Oct. SGX underperformed DCE early in the week.</li>
<li>Weekly options volume surged 188%, dominated by puts with a 1.04 put/call ratio, concentrated on November expiries and key strikes at 100 and 105.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures declined by $1.94/ton over the week, closing at $106.21/ton on October 11th, with prices ranging between $103.05 and $115/ton.
DCE premium over SGX surged to 10% on 8/Oct as DCE reopened after Golden Week, but the spread narrowed to 4.8% by 11/Oct. SGX underperformed DCE early in the week.
Weekly options volume surged 188%, dominated by puts with a 1.04 put/call ratio, concentrated on November expiries and key strikes at 100 and 105.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/41] IO IV Surges and Put Activity Rebounds Following Golden Week

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices dropped below $105/ton on 8 Oct after China's NDRC failed to announce new stimulus measures, tempering bullish sentiment from earlier liquidity injections.</li>
<li>Chinese portside inventories grew by 590k tons, reaching 147.84 million tons by 11 Oct, driven by higher arrivals and slower post-holiday consumption.</li>
<li>While RSI signals bullish momentum, MACD shows a fading rally. Prices approach the critical 200-day moving average at $110/ton, posing a potential resistance point.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices dropped below $105/ton on 8 Oct after China's NDRC failed to announce new stimulus measures, tempering bullish sentiment from earlier liquidity injections.
Chinese portside inventories grew by 590k tons, reaching 147.84 million tons by 11 Oct, driven by higher arrivals and slower post-holiday consumption.
While RSI signals bullish momentum, MACD shows a fading rally. Prices approach the critical 200-day moving average at $110/ton, posing a potential resistance point.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/41] Iron Ore Prices Drop Amid Disappointing Stimulus Signals

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore futures surged by $5.64/ton last week, with prices peaking at $113.55/ton on 30 Sept amid China's expanded stimulus measures.</li>
<li>Short-Term moving averages signal a bullish trend, with the 9-day MA crossing the 100-day MA on 4 Oct, indicating further upward momentum.</li>
<li>Overbought conditions, with RSI nearing 70, suggest caution, and a tight stop loss remains advisable as support at $105/ton remains weak.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore futures surged by $5.64/ton last week, with prices peaking at $113.55/ton on 30 Sept amid China's expanded stimulus measures.
Short-Term moving averages signal a bullish trend, with the 9-day MA crossing the 100-day MA on 4 Oct, indicating further upward momentum.
Overbought conditions, with RSI nearing 70, suggest caution, and a tight stop loss remains advisable as support at $105/ton remains weak.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​40] Expanded China Stimulus Supports Bullish Iron Ore

<ul>
<li>A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. </li>
<li>While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.</li>
</ul>


A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.
Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. 
While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.


Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

The positive sentiment in iron ore lasted only two weeks as China disappointed investors with its announcements on the stimulus plan. This leaves...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Options Weekly 2024/41] IO IV Surges and Put Activity Rebounds Following Golden Week

SGX Iron Ore Futures saw volatility last week with price rejections at pivot points, surging DCE premiums, and increased options activity focused...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/41] Iron Ore Prices Drop Amid Disappointing Stimulus Signals

Iron ore prices are caught between rising inventories and weakening market optimism following a lack of clear stimulus signals from China....

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/40] Expanded China Stimulus Supports Bullish Iron Ore

IO surged $5.64/ton early last week. Expanded China stimulus plan supports bullish momentum in Iron Ore but caution is advised as prices approach...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

We get more constructive in the short term, with China stimulus measures likely to result in a sizeable short squeeze for iron ore. Iron ore could...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

The positive sentiment in iron ore lasted only two weeks as China disappointed investors with its announcements on the stimulus plan. This leaves...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Options Weekly 2024/41] IO IV Surges and Put Activity Rebounds Following Golden Week

SGX Iron Ore Futures saw volatility last week with price rejections at pivot points, surging DCE premiums, and increased options activity focused...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/41] Iron Ore Prices Drop Amid Disappointing Stimulus Signals

Iron ore prices are caught between rising inventories and weakening market optimism following a lack of clear stimulus signals from China....

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​40] Expanded China Stimulus Supports Bullish Iron Ore

IO surged $5.64/ton early last week. Expanded China stimulus plan supports bullish momentum in Iron Ore but caution is advised as prices approach...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

We get more constructive in the short term, with China stimulus measures likely to result in a sizeable short squeeze for iron ore. Iron ore could...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/40] Expanded China Stimulus Supports Bullish Iron Ore